Every call, posted before it resolves. Graded in public. Misses kept.
EHIQ posts a probability on market and event outcomes before they happen, marks each against tape, and logs the misses as loudly as the hits. Structural analysis, held to its own receipts.
Active calls · 60
EHIQ probability vs market, before each resolves
- +26.0pp
2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms Newsom
EHIQ 38% · polymarket 12% · in 25mo
- +26.1pp
2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)
EHIQ 35% · in 25mo
- -8.5pp
JD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favorite
EHIQ 32% · polymarket 40% · in 25mo
- +4.5pp
2028 presidency — JD Vance
EHIQ 27% · polymarket 23% · in 27mo
- +5.3pp
2028 presidency — Gavin Newsom
EHIQ 15% · polymarket 10% · in 27mo
- -2.4pp
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
EHIQ 10% · polymarket 12% · in 27mo
Firing now · 6
Sensors above STABLE right now (of 309 total)
BTC Cycle Turn Composite
RISINGELEVATED = both IGV stabilization and stablecoin expansion detected simultaneously.
BTC Dominance Sensor
RISINGRising dominance often signals risk-off within crypto. Falling dominance signals alt-season or speculative rotation.
CMC Fear & Greed Index
RISINGDining Activity Index
STRESSEconomic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
ELEVATEDHigh EPU indicates uncertain policy environment. COVID peak was 500+. Financial crisis was 200+.
Eth Eip1559 Burn Rate
RISING
Powered by local AI. Not investment advice.
Get the next call before the crowd.
EHIQ flagged the Musk–Altman split 9 days before it broke. Subscribe free for the methodology breakdown — plus an alert the moment a sensor flips or a tracked call resolves.
Structural Risk Index (SRI)
309+ sensors. Not 7. Structure, not sentiment.
Hold positions.
Historical 30d BTC return at this level: +2.9% avg
Last SEVERE: May 2021 (81/100) — BTC fell 53%. Jan 2026: ELEVATED (55/100) — BTC fell 33% in 10 days.
Validated against BTC 30-day forward drawdowns (IC -0.31). BTC leads the cycle — when structure breaks, everything follows.
Stress Signals — 4 sensors elevated
Growth Valuation
Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
High policy uncertainty — macro headwind for risk assets.
Polymarket IQ
Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.
Real Rate Regime Sensor
Real yields elevated — significant headwind for equities and crypto.
Macro Sensors
Rates & Fed
Real Rate Regime Sensor
Real yields elevated — significant headwind for equities and crypto.
Fed Surprise Sensor
Fed in line with market expectations — no surprise repricing.
Treasury Regime Detector
Treasury market orderly — no regime stress.
Treasury Yield Regime Sensor
Yield curve normal — no recession signal.
Credit & Risk
Credit Spread Monitor
Credit spreads tight — markets relaxed about default risk.
Lending Conditions
Bank lending standards normal — credit flowing.
VIX Regime Sensor
Monitors VIX levels and term structure for volatility regime classification.
Cross-Market Stress Spread
Macro and crypto stress aligned — no contagion signal.
Cross-Asset Spillover
No spillover between asset classes — markets trading independently.
Risk Appetite Index
Risk appetite collapsed — fear dominating across sensors.
Economic Activity
Employment Health Sensor
Labor market healthy — claims in normal range.
Commodity Basket Stress Sensor
Commodities in normal range — no supply shocks.
DXY Dollar Strength Sensor
Monitors DXY and USDJPY as currency regime indicators. Strong dollar squeezes EM debt, pressures crypto. JPY strength signals carry unwind.
Housing Market Sensor
Monitors US housing as a 6-12 month recession leading indicator. Mortgage spikes choke demand, declining prices signal wealth effect reversal.
Policy & Geopolitical
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
High policy uncertainty — macro headwind for risk assets.
Regulatory Velocity Gauge
Regulatory environment stable — no new crypto/macro headwinds.
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Geopolitical risk baseline — no elevated threats.
Crypto Sensors
Market Structure
BTC Dominance Sensor
BTC dominance climbing — risk-off rotation, alts underperforming.
Stablecoin Stress Sensor
Peg deviations detected — monitor depeg risk.
Stablecoin Supply Sensor
Stablecoin supply flat — no net capital movement.
Stablecoin Supply Momentum
Stablecoin growth rate steady — no acceleration.
DeFi TVL Monitor
DeFi TVL steady — no capital migration.
TVL Momentum
TVL growth rate flat — no acceleration signal.
Leverage & Funding
Sentiment & Extremes
Composites & Regime
BTC Cycle Turn Composite
Cycle turn warming — one condition active (IGV stabilization or stablecoin expansion).
BTC Capitulation Composite Sensor
No BTC capitulation — holders not under stress.
ETH Capitulation Composite Sensor
No ETH capitulation — staking and gas metrics normal.
ETH Gas Regime Sensor
Monitors Ethereum network gas prices as on-chain activity indicator.
BTC Regime Detector
Identifies BTC market regime (bull/bear/transition) using multi-factor analysis.
Flight & Cross-Domain (Premium)
Institutional Confidence Stress
Composite stress indicator measuring institutional positioning confidence across sectors.
Institutional Accumulation Regime
Detects periods of institutional accumulation using multiple proprietary signals.
BTC-Dollar Dual Thrust
BTC up 5%+ in a week while DXY also rising. Unusual alignment signals institutional flow (not just weak-dollar carry). 5 assets.
Other Sensors
Growth Valuation
Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.
Polymarket IQ
Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.
Eth Eip1559 Burn Rate
Eth Gas Fee Regime
Eth Liquid Staking Ratio
Treasury General Account Liquidity
FRED WTREGEN - TGA drawdowns inject liquidity into markets
Treasury Yield Inversion
2Y-10Y Treasury spread monitor. Tracks the canonical recession-signal yield curve relationship. Distinct from yield-curve (slope dynamic) — measures inversion magnitude specifically.
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
FRED T10Y2Y spread - inversion signals recession risk
Canada Macro Composite
Canadian economy leading indicator (CAD, TSX, oil, employment, housing, BoC)
Corporate Stress Index
Corporate stress indicator derived from real-time search behavior patterns.
Macro Risk Score
Macro overlay for structural risk — Fed rate, CPI, gold, oil, mortgage. Lower = favorable for risk assets. Blended 70/30 with sensor composite on live site.
Social Momentum
Social media sentiment momentum across retail investor communities.
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
Chicago Fed ANFCI - positive values signal tighter financial conditions
CAD/USD Risk Barometer
Commodity currency risk-off detector (CAD, AUD, NOK vs oil)
Copper Momentum
Walk-forward validated #3 OOS signal. 30d copper price momentum.
Executive Sentiment Divergence
Insider actions aligned with narrative — no divergence signal.
IV-RV Spread (Variance Risk Premium)
Deribit DVOL minus 30-day realized vol. When options overprice fear relative to realized conditions, subsequent BTC returns are positive. Correlation: 0.172 with 21d direction.
Innovation Momentum
Innovation momentum indicator from intellectual property activity.
Reddit Sentiment
r/Bitcoin, r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader VADER sentiment. CONTRARIAN indicator: retail extremes invert.
Stablecoin Depeg Monitor
Monitors USDT/USDC/DAI/FDUSD peg stability
Canadian Resort Housing
Whistler/Collingwood/Muskoka/Mont-Tremblant resort real estate composite
Capitulation Convergence
Consensus Divergence
Divergence between market consensus and alternative earnings estimates.
Dining Activity Index
Consumer confidence proxy derived from real-time reservation and hospitality activity data.
Eth L2 Throughput
Eth Validator Exit Queue
Executive Urgency Index
Measures the speed at which corporate executives act on material information.
Macro Regime Overlay
Macro regime classification using unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and mortgage rates.
Northern Labor Migration
Northern labor migration patterns and their macro implications.
TIQ Sector Regime: BDCS
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for bdcs. Aggregates management language across 5 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: CONSUMER
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for consumer. Aggregates management language across 11 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: CRYPTO_ADJACENT
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for crypto_adjacent. Aggregates management language across 6 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: ENERGY
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for energy. Aggregates management language across 11 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: FINANCIALS
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for financials. Aggregates management language across 15 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: HEALTHCARE
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for healthcare. Aggregates management language across 12 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: SAAS
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for saas. Aggregates management language across 12 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
TIQ Sector Regime: SEMIS
Sector-level TIQ regime detector for semis. Aggregates management language across 14 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.
Premium Sensors
Unlock all →Annual saves 33%. Founding-1000 pricing locked for life. Sentiment is downstream. Structure leads.
EventHorizon IQ is an intelligence layer. It provides diagnostic observations, not investment advice, trading signals, or recommendations. All sensor data reflects current conditions at time of recording. Past states do not predict future outcomes. No execution capabilities.