EventHorizon IQ  /  Structural market intelligence

Every call, posted before it resolves. Graded in public. Misses kept.

EHIQ posts a probability on market and event outcomes before they happen, marks each against tape, and logs the misses as loudly as the hits. Structural analysis, held to its own receipts.

18.8 / 100
Structural Risk Index (SRI) · MODERATE
Hold positions.
Recent calls landed: Iowa Senate D +31pp vs Kalshi (Jun 3, HIT) · California Governor +15pp vs Polymarket (Jun 3, HIT) · LA Mayoral 2-slot package HIT (Jun 3) · BCRED gating (Pebbles III, Jun 4, published two hours before the gate fired) · Iceman exit-architecture series — 5 layers →

Active calls · 75

EHIQ probability vs market, before each resolves

All calls →

Firing now · 6

Sensors above STABLE right now (of 307 total)

All sensors →
11 days
before BTC crash
Jan 26 → Feb 6, 2026 · -43%
60 days
before SVB collapsed
7 / 7 US bank failures caught
$15 → $487
Carvana, flagged pre-run
32x · Distress-to-Credibility pattern
1 quarter
before Apple AI collapse
TonalityIQ detected the shift
The Tell · TonalityIQ CEO series

Complete earnings-call corpora, read CEO by CEO: the language patterns, inflection quarters, and tells the numbers miss.

Read the series →
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Structural Risk Index (SRI)

307+ sensors. Not 7. Structure, not sentiment.

MODERATE
18.8 / 100
LOWMODRISINGELEVSEVERE

Hold positions.

Last SEVERE: May 2021 (81/100), BTC fell 53%. Jan 2026: ELEVATED (55/100), BTC fell 33% in 10 days.

7 sensors elevated307+ sensorsFull index →Methodology →

Validated against BTC 30-day forward drawdowns (IC -0.31). BTC leads the cycle: when structure breaks, everything follows.

296 Stable
3 Rising
7 Elevated
306 sensors active

Stress Signals — 9 sensors elevated

Macro Sensors

Crypto Sensors

Other Sensors

MacroHIGH

Growth Valuation

--
SEVERE
3031
11d stale

Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.

CryptoHIGH

IV-RV Spread (Variance Risk Premium)

SEVERE
3031
4h ago

Deribit DVOL minus 30-day realized vol. When options overprice fear relative to realized conditions, subsequent BTC returns are positive. Correlation: 0.172 with 21d direction.

Crypto

Eth Gas Fee Regime

ELEVATED 24h 7d
3031
Live
Crypto

Eth L2 Throughput

STRESSED 7d
3031
Live
Crypto

Eth Liquid Staking Ratio

STRESSED 7d
3031
Live
MacroMEDIUM

Polymarket IQ

ELEVATED
3031
Live

Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.

MacroHIGH

Treasury Yield Inversion

RISING
3031
Live

2Y-10Y Treasury spread monitor. Tracks the canonical recession-signal yield curve relationship. Distinct from yield-curve (slope dynamic) — measures inversion magnitude specifically.

Macro

Canada Macro Composite

NEUTRAL
3031
3h ago

Canadian economy leading indicator (CAD, TSX, oil, employment, housing, BoC)

Crypto

Eth Eip1559 Burn Rate

NEUTRAL
3031
Live
Macro

Macro Risk Score

--
NEUTRAL
3031
11d stale

Macro overlay for structural risk — Fed rate, CPI, gold, oil, mortgage. Lower = favorable for risk assets. Blended 70/30 with sensor composite on live site.

sentiment

Social Momentum

NEUTRAL
3032
Live

Social media sentiment momentum across retail investor communities.

Macro

CAD/USD Risk Barometer

RISK ON 7d
3031
2h ago

Commodity currency risk-off detector (CAD, AUD, NOK vs oil)

Macro

Copper Momentum

--
STABLE
3031
11d stale

Walk-forward validated #3 OOS signal. 30d copper price momentum.

FundamentalMEDIUM

Executive Sentiment Divergence

--
STABLE
3036
11d stale

Insider actions aligned with narrative — no divergence signal.

equity

Innovation Momentum

STABLE
3031
6d stale

Innovation momentum indicator from intellectual property activity.

CryptoMEDIUM

Reddit Sentiment

--
STABLE
3032
11d stale

r/Bitcoin, r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader VADER sentiment. CONTRARIAN indicator: retail extremes invert.

risk

Stablecoin Depeg Monitor

--
NORMAL
3031
11d stale

Monitors USDT/USDC/DAI/FDUSD peg stability

Macro

Canadian Resort Housing

--
COOLING
3031
11d stale

Whistler/Collingwood/Muskoka/Mont-Tremblant resort real estate composite

composite

Capitulation Convergence

NONE
3031
Live
equity

Consensus Divergence

--
NO DATA
3031
3d stale

Divergence between market consensus and alternative earnings estimates.

Macro

Corporate Stress Index

CALM
3032
Live

Corporate stress indicator derived from real-time search behavior patterns.

Macro

Dining Activity Index

STRESS
3032
4h ago

Consumer confidence proxy derived from real-time reservation and hospitality activity data.

Crypto

Eth Validator Exit Queue

NO DATA
3031
Live
equity

Executive Urgency Index

--
NO DATA
3033
Live

Measures the speed at which corporate executives act on material information.

Macro

Macro Regime Overlay

--
EXPANSION
3031
11d stale

Macro regime classification using unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and mortgage rates.

Macro

Northern Labor Migration

--
ACCELERATING
3031
11d stale

Northern labor migration patterns and their macro implications.

tonality-iq0.75

TIQ Sector Regime: BDCS

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for bdcs. Aggregates management language across 5 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: CONSUMER

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for consumer. Aggregates management language across 11 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.8

TIQ Sector Regime: CRYPTO_ADJACENT

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for crypto_adjacent. Aggregates management language across 6 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: ENERGY

--
DEFENSIVE
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for energy. Aggregates management language across 11 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: FINANCIALS

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for financials. Aggregates management language across 15 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: HEALTHCARE

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for healthcare. Aggregates management language across 12 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: SAAS

--
CONFIDENT
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for saas. Aggregates management language across 12 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

tonality-iq0.95

TIQ Sector Regime: SEMIS

--
MIXED
3032
11d stale

Sector-level TIQ regime detector for semis. Aggregates management language across 14 tickers. States: CONFIDENT/MIXED/DEFENSIVE/CAPITULATION.

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EventHorizon IQ is an intelligence layer. It provides diagnostic observations, not investment advice, trading signals, or recommendations. All sensor data reflects current conditions at time of recording. Past states do not predict future outcomes. No execution capabilities.