Best calls. Biggest misses. Kept.

Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)

EHIQ 70% · market 50% at call · resolved NO

Drake Iceman first-week sales settled at ~463K (Polymarket 450K-500K bucket). Call was 525K+ — missed by ~12%.

LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner

EHIQ 37% · market 18% at call · resolved NO

Pratt finished 2nd at ~29% (51% counted, 2026-06-02), advancing to the November runoff against Bass. On the LITERAL question — Pratt FIRST-ROUND WINNER — outcome resolved NO. However, the Jun 1 EHIQ analytical update on this race was a three-call package: (a) Bass first-round 0.66 → 0.43, (b) Pratt first-round 0.20 → 0.37, (c) Raman-over-Pratt-for-#2 0.55 → 0.18. Read together, the package's implied directional call was 'Bass 1st, Pratt 2nd' — which is exactly what happened. The Raman-over-Pratt-#2 entry (id=75) carries the formal HIT credit for the Pratt-takes-runoff prediction (correctly faded Polymarket by 17pp). This Pratt first-round entry (id=4) is logged as calibration_note: the +19pp market fade was direction-correct (Pratt was materially more competitive than the market's 18% priced), and the analytical package landed exactly on the 'Bass 1st / Pratt 2nd' outcome. The binary literal claim (Pratt wins 1st) was the magnitude overshoot. The directional revision was right.

Katie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place

EHIQ 11% · market 1% at call · resolved NO

Porter conceded the race 2026-06-02 — did not advance to the runoff. EHIQ 11% vs Polymarket 1.4% (EHIQ overweight by 9.6pp). The TIQ signal on Porter overweighted her vs market consensus; market was closer.

Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 85% · market 93% at call · resolved NO

Chong Won-o lost 2026 Seoul Mayoral on Jun 3 2026, conceded to incumbent Oh Se-hoon. EHIQ stamp at 85% probability of Chong-win MISSED. SCHOLAR-verified outcome.

Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 15% · market 8% at call · resolved NO

Oh Se-hoon won 2026 Seoul Mayoral on Jun 3 2026. EHIQ stamp at 15% probability of Oh-win MISSED (actual: Oh won). SCHOLAR-verified outcome.

Matt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place

EHIQ 7% · market 2% at call · resolved NO

Mahan trailing — did not advance to the runoff. EHIQ 7% vs Polymarket 2.2%.

Xavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place

EHIQ 52% · market 49% at call · resolved NO

Becerra finished 2nd at ~25.8% (51% counted, 2026-06-02), behind Hilton at 26.7%. EHIQ called Becerra first-place at 52% (consensus-confirming vs Polymarket 49%). The call was both EHIQ's and the market's majority view, and both were wrong on the literal first-place outcome — Hilton edged Becerra. Becerra advances to the November runoff in 2nd. Note: final order may shift with late ballots; will revise if Becerra moves into 1st in final tally.

Tom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place

EHIQ 35% · market 34% at call · resolved NO

Steyer finished 3rd at ~19.6% — not first-place. EHIQ 35% vs Polymarket 33.5%. Did not advance to the runoff.

BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins

EHIQ 80% · market 81% at call · resolved NO