Best calls. Biggest misses. Kept.

Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary

EHIQ 42% · market 65% at call · resolved NO

El-Sayed WON the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary on 2026-08-04, 48.5% to Haley Stevens' 47.5%, a 1-point margin. Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 42%, below even, so this is a MISS. NOTE FOR THE RECORD: the market had 65% and was right, so this is a call where the market beat EHIQ on a priced question.

Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling

EHIQ 56% · market 35% at call · resolved NO

The Paris Court of Appeal ruled 2026-07-08 (formation solennelle, on remand from the Cour de cassation) that neither Vincent Bollore, Bollore SE, nor the 'Bollore group' controlled Vivendi -- all CIAM claims rejected, no mandatory tender obligation; the court held de facto control cannot attach to a 'group.' VIV fell ~10.3% on the ruling; CIAM announced a second cassation appeal (pending, does not affect this dated resolution). EHIQ final 56% on rules-against (revised 33->60->52->56, dated in thesis) vs market 35% at open -- the rapporteur-follow prior failed; the sell-side consensus was right. Resolved late (15 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.

Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 85% · market 93% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald / France24, June 3 2026.

Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 15% · market 8% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.

Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)

EHIQ 10% · market 16% at call · resolved NO

Billboard / NME / Complex multi-outlet consensus.

BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins

EHIQ 80% · market 81% at call · resolved NO

FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1

EHIQ 60% · resolved NO

Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)

EHIQ 25% · resolved NO

LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)

EHIQ 18% · resolved NO

CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3.

FDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)

EHIQ 60% · resolved NO

The Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee voted 3 for, 9 against, 0 abstaining on 2026-07-29, the exact horizon date, finding the evidence did not support effectiveness of deramiocel for DMD cardiomyopathy. The call asked whether it would vote favorably, so the outcome is NO and EHIQ's 60% was a MISS. The voting question addressed a narrower indication than Capricor proposed and the vote is non-binding; neither changes the answer to the question as written.