Best calls. Biggest misses. Kept.

Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary

EHIQ 42% · market 65% at call · resolved NO

El-Sayed WON the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary on 2026-08-04, 48.5% to Haley Stevens' 47.5%, a 1-point margin. Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 42%, below even, so this is a MISS. NOTE FOR THE RECORD: the market had 65% and was right, so this is a call where the market beat EHIQ on a priced question.

Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 85% · market 93% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald / France24, June 3 2026.

Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 15% · market 8% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.

BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins

EHIQ 80% · market 81% at call · resolved NO

Fed rate hike in 2026

EHIQ 40% · resolved NO

The Fed raised its target range at the 16 September 2026 meeting (upper bound 3.75% to 4.00%, effective 17 September; FRED DFEDTARU). Polymarket settled YES on 16 September (outcomePrices [1, 0], UMA resolved). Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 40% on YES, so this is a MISS.

Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?

EHIQ 92% · resolved NO

Not completed by 2026-10-04: RAMP's EDGAR filing list as of 2026-10-10 has no 8-K Item 2.01/3.01 or Form 25 after the 2026-08-17 vote; RAMP still trading on NYSE 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.92 -> MISS (timing; deal still pending). Basis note: the EHIQ number was supplied verbally on 2026-08-18; no written basis exists (prob_basis flags it).

Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?

EHIQ 86% · resolved NO

Not completed by 2026-10-07: NEE's Rule 425 filing of 2026-10-08 still refers to the pending transactions; no Item 2.01 through 2026-10-10; Dominion still trading 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.864 -> MISS (timing; deal still pending).

Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

Completed 2026-09-04 (closing 8-K Item 2.01 filed 2026-09-04), before the 2026-10-06 horizon. EHIQ 0.499 leaned NO -> MISS by the >=0.5 side rule.

PQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election

EHIQ 55% · market 55% at call · resolved NO

FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)

EHIQ 70% · resolved NO

The advisory committee voted 10-3 FAVORABLY that the IGNYTE efficacy results are evaluable and clinically meaningful for RP1 + nivolumab, on 2026-07-30. The call asked whether it would vote UNfavorably, so the outcome is NO and EHIQ's 70% was a MISS. REGISTRATION DEFECT, recorded rather than used as an escape: the call named the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) and the review was by the Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee, the same body the Capricor call named correctly; the stated horizon was ~07-28 and the vote was 07-30. Eric ruled 2026-08-13 that it counts as a loss.