Best calls. Biggest misses. Kept.

Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling

EHIQ 56% · market 35% at call · resolved NO

The Paris Court of Appeal ruled 2026-07-08 (formation solennelle, on remand from the Cour de cassation) that neither Vincent Bollore, Bollore SE, nor the 'Bollore group' controlled Vivendi -- all CIAM claims rejected, no mandatory tender obligation; the court held de facto control cannot attach to a 'group.' VIV fell ~10.3% on the ruling; CIAM announced a second cassation appeal (pending, does not affect this dated resolution). EHIQ final 56% on rules-against (revised 33->60->52->56, dated in thesis) vs market 35% at open -- the rapporteur-follow prior failed; the sell-side consensus was right. Resolved late (15 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.

Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 85% · market 93% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald / France24, June 3 2026.

Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 15% · market 8% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.

Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)

EHIQ 10% · market 16% at call · resolved NO

Billboard / NME / Complex multi-outlet consensus.

BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins

EHIQ 80% · market 81% at call · resolved NO

v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)

EHIQ 62% · resolved NO

BTC closed 2026-06-10 at $61,449 (Yahoo) / $61,511 (Binance) vs the 2026-05-20 close of $77,458 / $77,552 -- down 20.7%, far below the at-or-above line. The v18 risk-ON gate call (score 0.619, ~62% probability of a higher close 21 days forward) missed. Resolved late (43 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.

Drake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

Speculative culture tip, digest-excluded. EHIQ set 0.50 on conviction against a market that priced ~5% and faded further; the market was right. Logged as a clean miss.

Future performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

Speculative culture tip, digest-excluded. Same basis and outcome as the Drake call. Logged as a clean miss.

Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

Billboard / Luminate: 463,000 units (449K streaming).

SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

CNBC: SPCX opened $150, high $176.52, close $161.11, +19.34%.