macro/MEDIUM confidence
CAD/USD Risk Barometer
Commodity currency risk-off detector (CAD, AUD, NOK vs oil)
SEVERE RISK OFF
Live
State History
42 readings|0 state changes|SEVERE RISK OFF: 100%
Track record
RISK ON
8 fires since 2021 · 63% hit · median 21d +0.6% on EWC
validated
RISK OFF
13 fires since 2021 · 31% hit · median 21d +1.2% on EWC
contrarian
NEUTRAL
22 fires since 2021 · 55% hit · median 21d +1.0% on EWC
no-content
SEVERE RISK OFF
7 fires since 2021 · 29% hit · median 21d +1.3% on EWC
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.