Fed Surprise Sensor
Detects divergence between Fed actions and market expectations.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Fed action matched market expectations. No surprise. Minimal market impact.
Fed more accommodative than market expected. Rate cut surprise or softer guidance. Risk-on signal.
Fed more restrictive than expected. Rate hike surprise or harder guidance. Risk-off signal.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.