macro/HIGH confidence
Fed Surprise Sensor
Detects divergence between Fed actions and market expectations.
STABLE
Live
Since Aug 19, 20265 people watching7 total views
State History
NEUTRAL
DOVISH SURPRISE
HAWKISH SURPRISE
162 readings|48 state changes|STABLE: 83%RISING: 17%
State Definitions
NEUTRAL
Fed action matched market expectations. No surprise. Minimal market impact.
DOVISH SURPRISE
Fed more accommodative than market expected. Rate cut surprise or softer guidance. Risk-on signal.
HAWKISH SURPRISE
Fed more restrictive than expected. Rate hike surprise or harder guidance. Risk-off signal.
Sources
Fires Together With
Real Rate Regime Sensor
8d overlapELEVATED
Growth Valuation
6d overlapSEVERE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
6d overlapRISING
Eth Gas Fee Regime
6d overlapRISING
Eth Liquid Staking Ratio
6d overlapSTRESSED
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
6d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.