macro/HIGH confidence
Fed Surprise Sensor
Detects divergence between Fed actions and market expectations.
RISING
Live
Since Jul 5, 20261 person watching3 total views
State History
NEUTRAL
DOVISH SURPRISE
HAWKISH SURPRISE
1000 readings|31 state changes|RISING: 81%STABLE: 19%
State Definitions
NEUTRAL
Fed action matched market expectations. No surprise. Minimal market impact.
DOVISH SURPRISE
Fed more accommodative than market expected. Rate cut surprise or softer guidance. Risk-on signal.
HAWKISH SURPRISE
Fed more restrictive than expected. Rate hike surprise or harder guidance. Risk-off signal.
Sources
Fires Together With
Commodity Basket Stress Sensor
2d overlapSTABLE
Cycle-Funding Divergence
2d overlapSTABLE
Panic Capitulation
2d overlapNORMAL
Real Rate Regime Sensor
2d overlapELEVATED
VIX Regime Sensor
2d overlapSTABLE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.