macro/HIGH confidence
Growth Valuation
Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.
SEVERE
Live
Since Jul 4, 20263 people watching
State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
986 readings|4 state changes|SEVERE: 100%RISING: 0%
State Definitions
RISING
Tech EY narrowing vs real 10Y. Multiple compression risk building.
SEVERE
Tech EY at or below real 10Y. Extreme overvaluation; growth multiples must compress, real rates must fall, or earnings must accelerate.
STABLE
Tech EY meaningfully above real 10Y. Growth multiples reasonable.
ELEVATED
Tech EY only 0-50bp above real 10Y. Equity risk premium minimal — narrow margin of safety.
Sources
Fires Together With
Treasury General Account Liquidity
53d overlapSEVERE
Promotional Yield Anomaly
52d overlapSEVERE
Cross-Venue Depeg Detector
52d overlapSTABLE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
52d overlapELEVATED
Real Rate Regime Sensor
52d overlapELEVATED
Management Behavior Index
52d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.