Growth Valuation
Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Tech EY narrowing vs real 10Y. Multiple compression risk building.
Tech EY at or below real 10Y. Extreme overvaluation; growth multiples must compress, real rates must fall, or earnings must accelerate.
Tech EY meaningfully above real 10Y. Growth multiples reasonable.
Tech EY only 0-50bp above real 10Y. Equity risk premium minimal — narrow margin of safety.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.