macro/HIGH confidence
Growth Valuation
Tech-sector earnings yield vs real 10Y Treasury yield. Detects when growth multiples are extreme relative to the prevailing rate environment.
SEVERE
Live
Since May 19, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
874 readings|256 state changes|SEVERE: 85%RISING: 15%
State Definitions
RISING
Tech EY narrowing vs real 10Y. Multiple compression risk building.
SEVERE
Tech EY at or below real 10Y. Extreme overvaluation; growth multiples must compress, real rates must fall, or earnings must accelerate.
STABLE
Tech EY meaningfully above real 10Y. Growth multiples reasonable.
ELEVATED
Tech EY only 0-50bp above real 10Y. Equity risk premium minimal — narrow margin of safety.
Sources
Fires Together With
Wealth Tier Divergence
6d overlapEUPHORIA
Mobility Demand Composite
6d overlapEUPHORIA
IV-RV Spread (Variance Risk Premium)
6d overlapELEVATED
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
6d overlapRISING
Cross-Venue Depeg Detector
6d overlapSEVERE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
6d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.