AI Capex Stress
Credit-market stress on AI hyperscaler capex funding: ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) combined with QQQ drawdown from all-time high. When HY spreads widen, tech capex gets more expensive/risky — detects environments where the massive-AI-capex names (ORCL, MSFT, META, GOOGL) face higher financing costs into the build-out.
State History
State Definitions
Spreads widening or drawdown building — funding-cost pressure on the capex story.
Credit stress at levels that historically force capex guidance cuts.
HY spreads contained, no meaningful QQQ drawdown.
Input outage — no fabricated level (declared).
Spreads wide AND tech drawdown — capex funding under real pressure.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.