Commodities Ballast
The 60/40 failure condition (Kawa 2022 framework, spec stamped 2026-10-03): when equities and bonds fall TOGETHER bonds are not hedging — and this sensor reads whether commodities are providing the replacement ballast. Regime on the 63-day SPX/TLT correlation and joint drawdown: BONDS-HEDGING (corr < 0), BOTH-LEGS-FAILING (corr >= 0 with both legs down), MIXED otherwise; inside BOTH-LEGS-FAILING, BCOMTR positive = BALLAST-CONFIRMED else BALLAST-ABSENT. Disjoint from kawa_rate_pressure by construction: kawa measures the credibility shock in inflation EXPECTATIONS, this measures the realized portfolio failure in cross-asset RETURNS (Jaccard 0.115). Ledger value = corr_63.
State History
State Definitions
BONDS-HEDGING — the pre-2022 negative-correlation hedge is working.
BOTH-LEGS-FAILING with BALLAST-ABSENT — bonds not hedging and commodities not replacing them; the 2022 condition.
MIXED — correlation positive but no joint drawdown (the post-2022 modal regime).
BOTH-LEGS-FAILING with BALLAST-CONFIRMED — the 60/40 is failing but commodities are carrying the ballast.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.