macro/HIGH confidence
Treasury Yield Regime Sensor
Monitors 10-year Treasury yield levels and yield curve shape.
NORMAL
2d stale
Since Mar 4, 2026State History
LOW
HIGH
NORMAL
ELEVATED
INVERTED
314 readings|3 state changes|NORMAL: 71%RISING: 29%
State Definitions
LOW
10Y yield < 2%. Low discount rates, supportive for risk assets. ZIRP/QE environment.
HIGH
10Y yield > 5%. Significant headwind for risk assets. Restrictive policy.
NORMAL
10Y yield 2-4%. Normal yield environment. Standard risk pricing.
ELEVATED
10Y yield 4-5%. Higher discount rates pressure valuations. Tightening cycle.
INVERTED
2Y yield > 10Y yield. Classic recession signal. Historically precedes downturns by 6-18 months.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.