macro/high confidence
Housing Market Sensor
Monitors US housing as a 6-12 month recession leading indicator. Mortgage spikes choke demand, declining prices signal wealth effect reversal.
NORMAL
Live
Since Oct 3, 20262 people watching
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
163 readings|8 state changes|NORMAL: 98%DECLINING: 2%
Track record
DECLINING
1 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d +8.2% on EWC
unmeasurable
NORMAL
2 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +4.3% on EWC
unmeasurable
STABLE
3 fires since 2021 · 33% hit · median 21d -1.5% on EWC
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
NORMAL
Score 1 -- mild stress.
SEVERE
Score >= 4 -- housing in distress.
STABLE
Score 0 -- healthy housing market.
ELEVATED
Score 2-3 -- building stress.
Sources
Fires Together With
Credit Spread Monitor
194d overlapSTABLE
VIX Regime Sensor
109d overlapSTABLE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
53d overlapSEVERE
BTC Dominance Sensor
13d overlapRISING
CMC Fear & Greed Index
4d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.