macro/high confidence
Housing Market Sensor
Monitors US housing as a 6-12 month recession leading indicator. Mortgage spikes choke demand, declining prices signal wealth effect reversal.
DECLINING
Live
Since Aug 10, 20262 people watching
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
22 readings|0 state changes|DECLINING: 100%
State Definitions
NORMAL
Score 1 -- mild stress.
SEVERE
Score >= 4 -- housing in distress.
STABLE
Score 0 -- healthy housing market.
ELEVATED
Score 2-3 -- building stress.
Sources
Fires Together With
Credit Spread Monitor
194d overlapSTABLE
VIX Regime Sensor
109d overlapLOW
Real Rate Regime Sensor
53d overlapELEVATED
BTC Dominance Sensor
13d overlapRISING
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
7d overlapRISING
Treasury General Account Liquidity
4d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.