Dealer Capacity
The intermediation channel of the rate story: the 30Y swap spread (swap rate minus 30Y treasury yield, bp) as the market-priced measure of dealer balance-sheet capacity. More negative = dealers must be paid more to hold treasuries than to pay fixed = balance-sheet constraint priced. v2 (Eric-stamped 2026-10-03): the v1 falsifier failed as written (2019 repo spike is a repo-market event, not a swap-spread event — declared in the build memo).
State History
State Definitions
Swap spread inside its normal band — intermediation capacity adequate.
Spread at constraint extremes — the plumbing is the story.
Spread deeply negative — dealers charging for balance sheet.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.