Where the instruments stand.
Every venue at its rung, every instrument named, hits and misses at the same size. A venue graduates from watch to pre-registered tells to a validated prior — and a venue that fails its pre-registration closes in public, at full size.
Board data as of Sep 8, 2026 · 31 venues · each card stamps its own last-verified date
Validated prior
5 venuesEarnings calls (H2)
verified Sep 5, 2026instrument: SSRN-lineage detector (deterministic)
+51.7/+79.4bp pre-registered retest PASS — first positive pre-reg result
descriptive-only publication form
S-1/SPAC fraud screen
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: whitepaper-lineage scorer 4300d28e
H1 fraud p=0.0002 (A3, n=26) + H2 sandbag p=0.0014 (A4 expansion 7→17, frozen +20% day-1 outcome leg; exclusions with numbers) — the RDDT insight vindicated: one instrument, both directions. Live monitor in shadow (fraud-side armed; sandbag tier amendment drafted)
Translation study (ES/PT/KO)
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: per-language evidence lexicons (297 words)
ES TRAVELS rho 0.6500 (n=6) · PT TRAVELS rho 0.6842 (n=5) — first real travel validations; KO v1 FAILS 0.4532 (held-out governs)
KO provenance publisher-grade
MFA answer-evasion
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: deterministic AQO + pivot-marker structural metric (explicitly NOT v7 F-DEFL)
H1 p=0.0038, H2 p=0.0149 Holm-surviving; 45 weekly rows backfilled; descriptive-era
Fund letters / quiet triad
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: quiet triad (within-document)
v2 PASS: H1 fraud +1.153 vs genuine −0.231, p=0.03910 (manager voice, n=6+30; short-doc sensitivity strengthens; caveat prints with every output); live bar SIGNED, flow in shadow (drift gate fired correctly: IR articles ≠ formal letters; N-CSR surface building)
Tells pre-registered
5 venuesCentral banks (5-bank grid)
verified Sep 6, 2026instrument: detector + own-baseline percentiles
baselines live (Fed/ECB/BOC/BOE/BOJ); ECB 9/10 + BoE 9/17 reads armed
BOJ language decision parked (Eric)
Midterms 2026
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: debate-night scorer vs own baselines
98 transcripts, 20 candidates; 16-race backtest corpus (3 legs) complete; MI 9/15 first at-bat
PA-2022 composition lesson governs joint reads
Sports panel (14 coaches)
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: v2 pre-reg + two-stage amendment (numbers screen, register diagnoses)
panel built + verified; watch live Tue 09:15; two-stage amendment live (numbers screen: Pythagorean/ATS/availability flags → register diagnoses; 9-fixture selftest); Week 1 opens 9/9
n≥20/class floor; classes clear ~mid-November
TTWO / GTA VI window
verified Sep 5, 2026instrument: detector vs TTWO baseline n=71
tell spec frozen (SLIP inev≥28.0 / CONFIRMED ≤11.7); Q1 FY27 read = CONFIRMED register
at-bat: Q2 FY2027 call, early Nov
Brazil 2026 elections (PT)
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: detector + PT travel-validated lexicon (rho 0.6842)
6/6 baselines built (Lula WITHHELD_floor — never estimated); Band #1 logged; composition.md two-man race; debates SBT+CNN 9/14 · 9/18 · 9/27 · Globo 10/1; first round Oct 4
Watch
15 venuesAdCom / PDUFA
verified Sep 6, 2026instrument: detector on sponsor + AdCom language
H1 +0.23 descriptive; 479-meeting corpus; RARE/PRAX sponsor watches armed; UX111 decision 9/19
2 prior hits recorded (NUVL, PTGX)
SCOTUS
verified Sep 6, 2026instrument: per-justice baselines + K-K alignment
K-K re-measure: aligned→7+ majority 79.7% vs 6.1% split (+73.6pp); term opens 10/5
Thomas defector thesis TEMPERED by vote record
CEO departures
verified Sep 5, 2026instrument: detector vs 5 exec baselines
8 live books anchored; TSLA inev 100th pct, JPM superlative 96th
Musk timelines
verified Sep 5, 2026instrument: detector + slippage-ratio baseline
48 dated statements: median slip 2.40x (28 missed/17 open/3 delivered)
Altman / AI releases
verified Sep 5, 2026instrument: LAS trigger spec S01-S09
16 docs, 32 market anchors; GPT-6 stays NEVER-PRICED (Eric's ruling)
Putin / Kremlin
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: russian_tiq v2 (evidence-built) + EN-official layer
RU travel VALIDATED on 51 real pairs: setpiece 1.00 / presser 0.85 / remarks 0.65; v3 lexicon armed (remarks-genre enrichment, 246 terms; forward accumulator live — fires travel measurement at n≥8 post-cutoff pairs, WITHHELD check 2026-10-15)
0.70 'validation' was synthetic demos — retired
German coalition firewall
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: DE coalition lexicon (evidence-built seed)
65-doc corpus + first desk read: certainty collapsed stratum-wide (0.00/1k in 7/8); firewall holds as BEHAVIOR not declared constraint; SÖDER = the drift signal (6.62 + pragmatisch ×2); weekly watch live Mondays 10:30 ET
UNVALIDATED — no public reads until rho≥0.60 travel gate
Korean / president.go.kr
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: KO v2 evidence-built lexicon
KO v2 TRAVELS rho 0.6579 (n=11) — publisher-grade caveat (self-labeled 'Unofficial Translation'); v1 0.4532 retired
Farsi / Khamenei
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: farsi_tiq (provenance check first)
fa_reader_v1 deployed (descriptive on originals); travel FAILS (small-n artifacts); SUPERLATIVE LICENSE ACTIVE rho=0.7135 (n=30) — the one dim that travels
MSFT register digest
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: detector vs the 89-call Satya baseline + CEO-CFO gap
issue #1 shipped (2026-Q3, 2pp); cadence armed — Q1 FY27 read auto-renders issue #2 late Oct; 'descriptive, not a prediction; precedents are analogies' on every page
Bank fragility (FFIEC)
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: numeric sensor (6 call-report metrics)
FAIL at frozen bar but: anchor PERFECT (SIVB $15.16B/93.88%), 0/12 FPs; TWO failure classes — catches duration-death, misses franchise-run; quarterly descriptive watch live (bank-fragility-watch scheduler; 2026Q2 computed, 0 flags, 4 honest gaps)
descriptive quarterly watch path
BDC weekly scanner
verified Sep 4, 2026instrument: numeric panel (PIK/leverage/coverage)
live Mondays; FSK 22.4 panel-high coverage 1.0 = dividend-cut tell
Walter statutory filings
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: statutory churn genre (new)
43 sections incl. DE DOI exams; MD&A = separate April 1 filing, no free route (WITHHELD pending DOI)
Line 13.27 verbatim, never a ratio; descriptive-only
Redaction engine (Epstein)
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: differential recovery + strata predictor
992-pair ground-truth key real + idempotent; predictor not-yet-reliable (dates 0%, institutions 0%); transfer test PARKED at in-domain gate
DS11 intake running to grow the key
Military-intel monitors (RU/PK-IN/CCP)
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: escalation scorers + register reads
verified live 9/7 (ccp 05:11, russia 06:00, escalation 06:10, pakistan 06:30)
ORACLE keyword scorers stale since 4/17 — descriptive only
Building
0 venuesNothing at this rung today.
Descriptive only
3 venuesCCP / Plenary
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: mandarin_tiq on Xinhua EN layer
ZH register line CLOSED (both genres measured flat — officials hedge 0.00/1k even in pressers; certainty ~0.07; engineered flat); lane pivoted to MFA answer-EVASION instrument (H1 TIER-S AQO 0.1742 vs TIER-N 0.2541, p=0.0038 PASS) — weekly watch live
the evasion lane lives in the MFA answer-evasion row
Whitepaper screen (crypto)
verified Sep 8, 2026instrument: whitepaper-lineage scorer
founding-doc candor+tb group separation survives (tb p=0.0028); 100% claim + tiers + promo redesign all DEAD; raw-dims board LIVE at /screens/crypto-whitepapers (71 scored + 28 no-doc as data)
raw dims only, research-stage
Absence screen (no founding doc)
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: numeric (doc-status × forward returns)
PASS-with-caveat (p=0.0166; observed-only REVERSES — venue-death artifact)
never a predictive flag
Closed — published at full size
3 venuesThese screens failed their pre-registered tests or were withheld on the evidence. They stay on the board at the size of a pass — the board shows its closed doors.
Promo-layer screen
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: whitepaper-lineage scorer
FAIL: H1 p=0.396, H2 p=0.249 — legit homepage buzz inflation exceeds fraud
closed at full size
Short-response guilty register
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: detector + citation-density
v1 FAIL (inverted); v2 arcs FAIL p=0.0567 — citation decline marks ANY pressured company
program closed per its pre-regs
10-K risk-factor churn
verified Sep 7, 2026instrument: detector + sentence diff
WITHHELD: SIVB boilerplate-stable INTO FAILURE — modern genre doesn't vary (era artifact)
repair = era-stratified redesign; prospects weak
Rung promotion rule: watch → tells (pre-registered) → validated prior (pre-registered tells resolve with a recorded resolution rate). Nothing on this board is a call; the call ledger is human-stamped only. Every number names its instrument. 'closed' venues publish at the size of a pass.
The graded record of stamped calls lives on /record and /leaderboard. How a read earns its rung is on /methodology.
Disclaimer
Published intelligence and analytical research. Not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are responsible for their own decisions.