2028 presidency — JD Vance

RECONCILIATION 2026-10-03 (stamped desk:eric, "FIX BOTH and UPDATE BOTH"; TIQ/LAS-only constraint, v6 doctrine - NO SEM, NO polling): ehiq_prob 0.27 -> 0.16. Rule declared before computing: presidency = nomination x general. Nomination = 0.32, the read of record on prez-2028-vance-overrated (freshen-stamped 2026-09-27; TIQ/LAS speaker-isolation evidence). General = 0.50 DECLARED ASSUMPTION - the TIQ/LAS evidence does not reach the general: the 20-race leader-margin logistic requires BOTH nominees' scored corpora and the Democratic nominee is unknown; no other TIQ/LAS leg speaks to the general. The prior inconsistency, named: this row's May 2026 build (~50-55% nominated x ~50% general = 25-28%) was never reconciled to the July/September 0.32 nomination read, so 0.27 vs 0.32 printed an 84% conditional that the row's own ~50% general assumption contradicts - an artifact, not a view. The 2026-05-22 SEM leg (sem-1.2-2026-05-22, SEM nomination 65.56%) is retired from the derivation under the TIQ/LAS-only constraint. Range 0.22-0.34 -> 0.15-0.19 (nomination range 0.30-0.38 x 0.50). Prior text preserved below. --- PRIOR TEXT --- EHIQ leader for 2028 presidency. Sitting VP with Trump succession blessing. Math: ~50-55% nominated × ~50% wins general (incumbent-party headwind balanced by Trump coalition durability) = 25-28%. Polymarket 18.85% — EHIQ +8pp upstream. EHIQ register scoring scoring (May 2026): register score, high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate Vance has the strongest establishment-R register; Tucker tops him on register but lacks structural path.