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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — JD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
25%
(20-30%)
Edge
+6.3pp
EHIQ above market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 25% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 19%.
Market has since moved down to 19% · -0.2pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
EHIQ leader for 2028 presidency. Sitting VP with Trump succession blessing. Math: ~50% nominated × ~50% wins general (incumbent-party headwind balanced by Trump coalition durability) = 25%. Polymarket 18.85% — EHIQ +6pp upstream. EHIQ register scoring scoring (May 2026): register score, high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate Vance has the strongest establishment-R register; Tucker tops him on register but lacks structural path.
- 1.Vance register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate (intellectual register, qualifies specifics while expressing personal conviction).
- 2.Modern R primary VP-frontrunner conversion rate ~70%. EHIQ holds Vance nomination probability at 50% after factoring Tucker insurgency + Rubio pivot + splitter risks.
- 3.General election: ~50% R wins. Incumbent-party second-term headwind, but Trump coalition durability + Vance youth/competence offset.
- 4.Polymarket Rubio at 15.15% (2nd-highest) is the surprise — market is pricing meaningful establishment-pivot scenario from Vance to Rubio. EHIQ Rubio at 8% — less convinced the pivot happens.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028