2028 presidency — JD Vance

Thesis

1. 1.Vance register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate (intellectual register, qualifies specifics while expressing personal conviction).
2. 2.Modern R primary VP-frontrunner conversion rate ~70%. EHIQ holds Vance nomination probability at 50-55% after factoring Tucker insurgency + Rubio pivot + splitter risks.
3. 3.General election: ~50% R wins. Incumbent-party second-term headwind, but Trump coalition durability + Vance youth/competence offset.
4. 4.Polymarket Rubio at 15.15% (2nd-highest) is the surprise — market is pricing meaningful establishment-pivot scenario from Vance to Rubio. EHIQ Rubio at 8% — less convinced the pivot happens.
5. 5.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22: EHIQ 25% → 27% after SEM v1.2 build (`sem-1.2-2026-05-22`). SEM v1.2 R-nomination probability = 65.56% (v1.1 was 90.42%, dropped after long-lead t_unc cap raise + compression x0.6 + withdrawal multiplier 0.10). Apples-to-apples to /predictions presidency question: SEM-implied ≈ 65.56% × ~50% general ≈ 33%. Long-lead damping per migration-note discipline ("DO NOT cite long-lead probabilities as informed forecasts") moves EHIQ modestly toward SEM (50% weight): 25 + 0.5×(33-25) ≈ 29 → conservative-rounded to 27%. TIQ specificity Vance 24.98 (MODERATE_CONVICTION per 2026-05-22 scoring) supportive but §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) prohibits claiming TIQ-validated.