Posted before it resolved. Graded in public. Misses kept.
Every resolved call below was published with a probability and a date before the outcome was known. The open date is the receipt. Active calls live on the predictions board →
Aggregate performance figures are withheld. Individual resolved calls remain published.
- HIT
OpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026
Corporate · opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 19, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · polymarket 47%
- HIT
Apple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event
Corporate · opened Aug 30, 2026 · resolved Sep 14, 2026
EHIQ 80% at open
- HIT
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide
biotech · opened Aug 20, 2026 · resolved Sep 5, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
FDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib
biotech · opened Aug 6, 2026 · resolved Sep 5, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026
Macro · opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 2, 2026
EHIQ 95% at open
- HIT
BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%
private_credit · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- MISS
FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1
private_credit · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 60% at open
- MISS
Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)
Election · opened Jul 12, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 25% at open
- HIT
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Drake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200
Corporate · opened Jun 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 72% at open · polymarket 77%
- —
Seahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting
Corporate · opened Aug 16, 2026 · resolved Aug 30, 2026
EHIQ 92% at open
- MISS
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved Aug 26, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open · manual 35%
- MISS
Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary
Election · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 42% at open · polymarket 65%
- MISS
FDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 60% at open
- MISS
FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- MISS
Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling
Legal · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 56% at open · sell_side_consensus 35%
- HIT
Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)
Election · opened Jun 1, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 12% at open · polymarket 36%
- MISS
v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)
Macro · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 62% at open
- MISS
Future performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
culture · opened Jul 13, 2026 · resolved Jul 20, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · kalshi 6%
- MISS
Drake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
culture · opened Jul 13, 2026 · resolved Jul 20, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · kalshi 5%
- HIT
Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 78% at open
- HIT
NRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- HIT
Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports
Legal · opened Jun 27, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 82% at open · polymarket 72%
- HIT
Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?
Legal · opened Jun 27, 2026 · resolved Jun 29, 2026
EHIQ 30% at open
- HIT
Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 29, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- ICEMAN HELD #1 IN WEEK 4 WITH 133K EQUIVALENT ALBUM UNITS (WEEK ENDING JUNE 11), ABOVE THE 120K BAR. >120K = YES. EHIQ 75% → HIT.
Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- ICEMAN CONTAINS MULTIPLE APPARENT KENDRICK LAMAR DISSES (JANICE STFU, MAKE THEM PAY, MAKE THEM REMEMBER). KENDRICK MENTION/DISS = YES. EHIQ 10% (KALSHI FADE) → MISS.
Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)
Corporate · opened Apr 26, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 10% at open · kalshi 16%
- ICEMAN DEBUTED AT #1 WITH 463K EQUIVALENT ALBUM UNITS (WEEK ENDING MAY 21) — BELOW THE 525K BAR. >525K = NO. EHIQ 50% (NO DIRECTIONAL EDGE).
Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)
Corporate · opened May 4, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open · polymarket 50%
- SPCX DAY-1 CLOSING MARKET CAP WAS ~$2.1 TRILLION, ABOVE THE $2T THRESHOLD. >$2T = YES. EHIQ 55% → HIT.
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion
Corporate · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open
- SPCX CLOSED DAY 1 AT $161.11, +19.3% VS THE $135 IPO — JUST BELOW THE +20% LINE ON A CLOSE BASIS (INTRADAY HIGH WAS ~$176.5 / +31%). POP >20% (CLOSE) = NO. EHIQ 50% (NO DIRECTIONAL EDGE).
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%
Corporate · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- BOC HELD THE POLICY RATE AT 2.25% (5TH CONSECUTIVE HOLD). HOLD = YES. EHIQ 63% → HIT. NOTE: THE ACTUAL DECISION WAS JUNE 10, NOT JUNE 4 (NO JUNE 4 BOC MEETING EXISTED); RESOLVED ON THE JUNE RATE DECISION.
BoC 2026-06-04 — Hold at 2.25%
Macro · opened May 22, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 63% at open
- CHONG WON-O LOST TO INCUMBENT OH (MARGIN 1.15PT) DESPITE EXIT POLLS PROJECTING A CHONG WIN. CHONG WIN = NO. EHIQ 85% → MISS.
Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 85% at open · polymarket 93%
- OH SE-HOON RETAINED THE SEOUL MAYORALTY (5TH TERM, 49.22%), A COME-FROM-BEHIND WIN OVER CHONG. RETENTION = YES. EHIQ 15% → MISS (LOWBALLED THE INCUMBENT).
Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 15% at open · polymarket 8%
- PRATT LED FOR 2ND ON ELECTION NIGHT (~29%) BUT FELL TO 3RD AS BALLOTS COUNTED, LOCKED OUT OF THE RUNOFF. NOT FIRST. FIRST-ROUND WINNER = NO. EHIQ 20% → HIT.
LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 20% at open · polymarket 18%
- RAMAN FINISHED 2ND (~21%, OVERTOOK PRATT DURING THE COUNT). NOT FIRST. FIRST-ROUND WINNER = NO. EHIQ 17% → HIT.
LA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 17% at open · polymarket 34%
- BASS FINISHED 1ST IN THE LA MAYORAL FIRST ROUND (~36%), ADVANCING TO A NOV 3 RUNOFF (NO OUTRIGHT >50%). FIRST-ROUND WINNER = YES. EHIQ 66% → HIT.
LA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 66% at open · polymarket 45%
- MAHAN FINISHED 6TH (3.5%). FIRST-PLACE = NO. EHIQ 7% → HIT.
Matt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 7% at open · polymarket 2%
- PORTER FINISHED 5TH (4.4%). FIRST-PLACE = NO. EHIQ 11% → HIT.
Katie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 11% at open · polymarket 1%
- STEYER FINISHED 3RD (22.8%), DID NOT ADVANCE. FIRST-PLACE = NO. EHIQ 35% → HIT.
Tom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 35% at open · polymarket 34%
- HILTON FINISHED 2ND (24.7%) — ADVANCED BUT NOT FIRST PLACE. FIRST-PLACE = NO. EHIQ 25% → HIT (CORRECTLY FADED).
Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 25% at open · polymarket 10%
- BECERRA FINISHED 1ST IN THE CA-GOV PRIMARY (28.1%), ADVANCING TO NOVEMBER WITH HILTON. FIRST-PLACE = YES. EHIQ 52% → HIT.
Xavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 52% at open · polymarket 49%
- HIT
Mullin v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5) — government wins on asylum metering
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 25, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- NOTE
Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 24, 2026
EHIQ 28% at open · polymarket 42%
- HIT
Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 24, 2026
EHIQ 20% at open · polymarket 39%
- HIT
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 15
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 12, 2026
EHIQ 90% at open
- HIT
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 12
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 12, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- HIT
Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved Jun 3, 2026
EHIQ 66% at open · kalshi 35%
- MISS
BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 80% at open · polymarket 81%
- HIT
Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 2% at open · polymarket 6%
- HIT
Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 10% at open · polymarket 20%
- HIT
Musk v Altman verdict
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved May 18, 2026
EHIQ 30% at open · kalshi 40%
- HIT
PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation
Earnings · opened Apr 15, 2026 · resolved May 8, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- HIT
OPEN Q1 FY26 — Reffkin pattern Type A
Earnings · opened May 6, 2026 · resolved May 7, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- HIT
NXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus
Earnings · opened May 6, 2026 · resolved May 6, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- NOTE
DAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration
Earnings · opened May 4, 2026 · resolved May 5, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- HIT
Bulgaria — Radev presidential call
Election · opened Apr 19, 2026 · resolved Apr 19, 2026
EHIQ 85% at open
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