Resolved calls, dated. Misses kept.
Each resolved call below carries the probability and open date recorded with it. Held calls are not listed while their hold stands. Active calls live on the predictions board →
Aggregate performance figures are withheld. Individual resolved calls remain published.
- MISS
Fed rate hike in 2026
Macro · opened Jul 2, 2026 · resolved Oct 15, 2026
EHIQ 40% at open · polymarket 47%
- MISS
Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
EHIQ 92% at open
- MISS
Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?
catalyst · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
EHIQ 86% at open
- HIT
Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 21, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
EHIQ 10% at open
- MISS
Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?
catalyst · opened Aug 22, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
catalyst · opened Aug 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026
EHIQ 90% at open
- MISS
PQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election
Election · opened Oct 2, 2026 · resolved Oct 6, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open · polymarket 55%
- HIT
Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round
Election · opened Sep 12, 2026 · resolved Oct 5, 2026
EHIQ 4% at open · polymarket 6%
- NOT SCORED
v18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 2026
Macro · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Oct 3, 2026
EHIQ 72% at open
- NO DIRECTION
OpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026
Corporate · opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 19, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · polymarket 47%
- NOT SCORED
ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18
private_credit · opened Aug 13, 2026 · resolved Sep 18, 2026
EHIQ 45% at open · instrument_implied 26%
- NO DIRECTION
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE (Ultragenyx) UX111
biotech · opened Aug 6, 2026 · resolved Sep 17, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Walter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 31
Corporate · opened Aug 23, 2026 · resolved Sep 16, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open
- HIT
Apple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event
Corporate · opened Aug 30, 2026 · resolved Sep 14, 2026
EHIQ 80% at open
- NO DIRECTION
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide
biotech · opened Aug 20, 2026 · resolved Sep 5, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- NOT SCORED
FDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib
biotech · opened Aug 6, 2026 · resolved Sep 5, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Khosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 2026
Corporate · opened Aug 30, 2026 · resolved Sep 3, 2026
EHIQ 90% at open
- HIT
Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026
Macro · opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 2, 2026
EHIQ 95% at open
- HIT
BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%
private_credit · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- NOT SCORED
FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1
private_credit · opened Jun 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 60% at open
- NOT SCORED
Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)
Election · opened Jul 12, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 25% at open
- NO DIRECTION
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- HIT
Drake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200
Corporate · opened Jun 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 1, 2026
EHIQ 72% at open · polymarket 77%
- HIT
Seahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting
Corporate · opened Aug 16, 2026 · resolved Aug 30, 2026
EHIQ 92% at open
- HIT
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved Aug 26, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open · manual 35%
- MISS
Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary
Election · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 42% at open · polymarket 65%
- MISS
FDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 60% at open
- MISS
FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)
biotech · opened Jul 18, 2026 · resolved Aug 13, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- NOT SCORED
Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026
Election · opened Jun 1, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 12% at open · polymarket 36%
- MISS
v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)
Macro · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 62% at open
- HIT
Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling
Legal · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jul 23, 2026
EHIQ 33% at open (registered May 20, verified; revised 56% May 22) · sell_side_consensus 35%
- NO DIRECTION
Future performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
culture · opened Jul 13, 2026 · resolved Jul 20, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · kalshi 6% (captured Jul 19)
- NO DIRECTION
Drake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
culture · opened Jul 13, 2026 · resolved Jul 20, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open · kalshi 5% (captured Jul 19)
- MISS
SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry
markets · opened Jun 12, 2026 · resolved Jul 15, 2026
EHIQ 40% at open
- NOT SCORED
Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports
Legal · opened Jun 27, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 82% at open · polymarket 72%
- HIT
NRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- HIT
Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 30, 2026
EHIQ 78% at open
- NOT SCORED
Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 29, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- NOT SCORED
Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?
Legal · opened Jun 27, 2026 · resolved Jun 29, 2026
EHIQ 30% at open
- NOT SCORED
Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- HIT
Drake Iceman Kendrick mention
Corporate · opened Apr 26, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 10% at open · kalshi 16%
- NOT SCORED
Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)
Corporate · opened May 4, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open · polymarket 50%
- NOT SCORED
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion
Corporate · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 55% at open
- NO DIRECTION
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%
Corporate · opened May 20, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 50% at open
- NOT SCORED
BoC 2026-06-04 — Hold at 2.25%
Macro · opened May 22, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 63% at open
- MISS
Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 85% at open · polymarket 93%
- MISS
Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 15% at open · polymarket 8%
- NOT SCORED
LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 20% at open · polymarket 18%
- NOT SCORED
LA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 17% at open · polymarket 34%
- HIT
LA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner
Election · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 66% at open · polymarket 45%
- CALIBRATION
Matt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 7% at open · polymarket 2%
- CALIBRATION
Katie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 11% at open · polymarket 1%
- CALIBRATION
Tom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 35% at open · polymarket 34%
- HIT
Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 25% at open · polymarket 10%
- CALIBRATION
Xavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ 52% at open · polymarket 49%
- HIT
Mullin v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5) — government wins on asylum metering
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved Jun 25, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- CALIBRATION
Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 24, 2026
EHIQ 28% at open · polymarket 42%
- HIT
Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved Jun 24, 2026
EHIQ 20% at open · polymarket 39%
- HIT
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 12
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 12, 2026
EHIQ 65% at open
- HIT
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 15
Corporate · opened Jun 8, 2026 · resolved Jun 12, 2026
EHIQ 90% at open
- HIT
Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved Jun 3, 2026
EHIQ 66% at open · kalshi 35%
- MISS
BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins
Election · opened May 28, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 80% at open · polymarket 81%
- HIT
Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 10% at open · polymarket 20%
- NOT SCORED
Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)
Election · opened May 10, 2026 · resolved May 31, 2026
EHIQ 2% at open · polymarket 6%
- HIT
Musk v Altman verdict
Legal · opened May 9, 2026 · resolved May 18, 2026
EHIQ 30% at open · kalshi 40%
- NOT SCORED
PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation
Earnings · opened Apr 15, 2026 · resolved May 8, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- NOT SCORED
OPEN Q1 FY26 — Reffkin pattern Type A
Earnings · opened May 6, 2026 · resolved May 7, 2026
EHIQ 70% at open
- NOT SCORED
NXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus
Earnings · opened May 6, 2026 · resolved May 6, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- CALIBRATION
DAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration
Earnings · opened May 4, 2026 · resolved May 5, 2026
EHIQ 75% at open
- NOT SCORED
Bulgaria — Radev National Assembly election call
Election · opened Apr 19, 2026 · resolved Apr 19, 2026
EHIQ 85% at open
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