EHIQ Track Record
The receipts.
Dated predictions, public outcomes. Each call carries its recorded open date. Probabilities locked at call time; markets cited from Kalshi or Polymarket where available.
Hit rate
—
rate withheld — see methodology
Tracked
102
real-time calls (backtests excluded)
Open
37
live calls awaiting resolution
Anchor receipts
All resolved real-time calls
MISSFed rate hike in 202640% / mkt 95%Oct 15, 2026MISSWill the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?92%Oct 10, 2026MISSWill the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?86%Oct 10, 2026HITWill the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?10%Oct 10, 2026MISSWill the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?50%Oct 10, 2026HITWill the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?90%Oct 10, 2026MISSPQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election55% / mkt 28%Oct 6, 2026HITAny candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round4% / mkt 6%Oct 5, 2026NOT SCOREDv18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 202672%Oct 3, 2026NO DIRECTIONOpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 202650%Sep 19, 2026NOT SCOREDARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-1845% / mkt 31%Sep 18, 2026NO DIRECTIONFDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE (Ultragenyx) UX11175%Sep 17, 2026HITWalter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 3155%Sep 16, 2026HITApple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event80%Sep 14, 2026NO DIRECTIONFDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide50%Sep 5, 2026NOT SCOREDFDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib50%Sep 5, 2026HITKhosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 202690%Sep 3, 2026HITBank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 202695%Sep 2, 2026HITBCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%65%Sep 1, 2026NOT SCOREDFSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q160%Sep 1, 2026NOT SCOREDPamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)25%Sep 1, 2026NO DIRECTIONFDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy50%Sep 1, 2026HITDrake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 20072% / mkt 77%Sep 1, 2026HITSeahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting92%Aug 30, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)70%Aug 13, 2026MISSAbdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary42% / mkt 65%Aug 13, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)60%Aug 13, 2026MISSv18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)62%Jul 23, 2026HITParis Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling56%Jul 23, 2026NOT SCOREDPezeshkian out by June 30 202612% / mkt 36%Jul 23, 2026NO DIRECTIONDrake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 8%Jul 20, 2026NO DIRECTIONFuture performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 4%Jul 20, 2026MISSSPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry40%Jul 15, 2026HITTrump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down78%Jun 30, 2026HITNRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck70%Jun 30, 2026NOT SCOREDLittle v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports82% / mkt 72%Jun 30, 2026NOT SCOREDTrump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?30%Jun 29, 2026NOT SCOREDTrump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned75%Jun 29, 2026
Currently open (13)
Live calls awaiting resolution. Premium subscribers see the full thesis behind each.
OPENDem House control 2026EHIQ 92%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENGA Senate — Ossoff retentionEHIQ 92%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO priceEHIQ 35%resolves Dec 9, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10ppEHIQ 40%resolves Dec 14, 2026OPENBTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 6%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake top Spotify artist 2026EHIQ 20%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative unitsEHIQ 60%resolves May 15, 2027OPENDrake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecastEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 20, 2027OPENFive9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 60%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENMicrosoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027EHIQ 65%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENDrake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENGavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominationEHIQ 16%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENCompagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascadeEHIQ 7%resolves Dec 31, 2028
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EHIQ Premium — eventhorizoniq.com/pricingCalls posted before resolution to the EHIQ predictions ledger. Backtests excluded from headline hit-rate. Methodology and full call history at /predictions.