EventHorizonIQ

EHIQ Track Record

The receipts.

Dated predictions, public outcomes. Every call posted before resolution; nothing retroactive. Probabilities locked at call time; markets cited from Kalshi or Polymarket where available.

Hit rate
—
rate withheld — see methodology
Tracked
81
real-time calls (backtests excluded)
Open
79
live calls awaiting resolution

Anchor receipts

Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place

Called May 10, 2026 · Resolved Jun 28, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
25%
vs
polymarket
10%
+15 pp vs 10%

CA SoS returns: Becerra 28.1%, Hilton 24.7%, Steyer 22.8%.

LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)

Called May 28, 2026 · Resolved Aug 26, 2026

MISS
EHIQ
18%
vs
manual
35%
-17 pp vs 35%

CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3.

Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)

Called May 4, 2026 · Resolved Jun 28, 2026

MISS
EHIQ
50%
vs
polymarket
50%
0 pp vs 50%

Billboard / Luminate: 463,000 units (449K streaming).

All resolved real-time calls

HITOpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 202650%Sep 19, 2026HITApple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event80%Sep 14, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide50%Sep 5, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib50%Sep 5, 2026HITBank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 202695%Sep 2, 2026HITBCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%65%Sep 1, 2026MISSFSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q160%Sep 1, 2026MISSPamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)25%Sep 1, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy50%Sep 1, 2026HITDrake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 20072% / mkt 77%Sep 1, 2026HITSeahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting92%Aug 30, 2026MISSAbdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary42% / mkt 65%Aug 13, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)60%Aug 13, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)70%Aug 13, 2026MISSParis Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling56%Jul 23, 2026HITPezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)12% / mkt 36%Jul 23, 2026MISSv18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)62%Jul 23, 2026MISSFuture performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 4%Jul 20, 2026MISSDrake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 8%Jul 20, 2026HITTrump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down78%Jun 30, 2026HITNRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck70%Jun 30, 2026HITLittle v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports82% / mkt 72%Jun 30, 2026HITTrump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?30%Jun 29, 2026HITTrump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned75%Jun 29, 2026HITDrake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K75%Jun 28, 2026MISSDrake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)10% / mkt 16%Jun 28, 2026HITSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion55%Jun 28, 2026MISSSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%50%Jun 28, 2026HITBoC 2026-06-04 — Hold at 2.25%63%Jun 28, 2026MISSChong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)85% / mkt 90%Jun 28, 2026MISSOh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)15% / mkt 10%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner20% / mkt 18%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner17% / mkt 34%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner66% / mkt 45%Jun 28, 2026HITMatt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place7% / mkt 2%Jun 28, 2026HITKatie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place11% / mkt 1%Jun 28, 2026HITTom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place35% / mkt 34%Jun 28, 2026

Currently open (27)

Live calls awaiting resolution. Premium subscribers see the full thesis behind each.

OPEN2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)EHIQ 35%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENJD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favoriteEHIQ 32%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — JD VanceEHIQ 27%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — Gavin NewsomEHIQ 15%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPENUS Senate control 2026EHIQ 47%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENUS House control 2026EHIQ 65%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENLula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 55%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENFlávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 43%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENBrad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 22%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENOlivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 68%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENGA Senate — Ossoff retentionEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO priceEHIQ 35%resolves Dec 9, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10ppEHIQ 40%resolves Dec 14, 2026OPENBTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 50%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENBlackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissalEHIQ 75%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENNo Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)EHIQ 40%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENGameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)EHIQ 8%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake top Spotify artist 2026EHIQ 20%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative unitsEHIQ 60%resolves May 15, 2027OPENDrake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecastEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 20, 2027OPENMicrosoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027EHIQ 65%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENBraze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENFive9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 60%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENDrake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENGavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominationEHIQ 16%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENCompagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascadeEHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2028

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Calls posted before resolution to the EHIQ predictions ledger. Backtests excluded from headline hit-rate. Methodology and full call history at /predictions.