EventHorizonIQ

EHIQ Track Record

The receipts.

Dated predictions, public outcomes. Every call posted before resolution; nothing retroactive. Probabilities locked at call time; markets cited from Kalshi or Polymarket where available.

Hit rate
68%
25 of 37 resolved
Tracked
95
real-time calls (backtests excluded)
Open
58
live calls awaiting resolution

Anchor receipts

Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls

Called May 28, 2026 · Resolved Jun 3, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
66%
vs
kalshi
35%
+31 pp vs 35%

Turek won the Iowa Democratic Senate primary 62.6% to Wahls 37.4% (AP projected 2026-06-02, 98%+ counted). EHIQ called Turek at 65-66% against Kalshi's 35%, a +30pp market-fade that paid. The gate-derived call (TIQ + SEM after Layer-3 intra-party haircut) was direction-correct and conviction-correct. Strongest single-call market-fade hit since Brexit (59-day lead) and Biden-Hur (164-day lead). Turek now faces Rep. Ashley Hinson in the November general.

Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place

Called May 10, 2026 · Resolved Jun 28, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
25%
vs
polymarket
10%
+15 pp vs 10%

CA SoS returns: Becerra 28.1%, Hilton 24.7%, Steyer 22.8%.

LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)

Called May 28, 2026 · Resolved Jun 3, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
18%
vs
manual
35%
-17 pp vs 35%

Pratt finished #2 at ~29%, Raman 3rd at ~21% (51% counted, 2026-06-02). Raman did NOT take the #2 runoff slot over Pratt. EHIQ revised 0.55 → 0.18 on 2026-06-01 after the Pratt register-evolution finding; Polymarket was at 0.35. Strong market-fade call: EHIQ correctly faded Raman by 17pp against market consensus. Pratt advances to November runoff against Bass.

Musk v Altman verdict

Called May 9, 2026 · Resolved May 18, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
30%
vs
kalshi
40%
-10 pp vs 40%

Jury unanimously rejected Musk's suit in full on statute-of-limitations grounds (2026-05-18), including the aiding-and-abetting claim against Microsoft (a named co-defendant). EHIQ posted 30% Musk-win on 2026-05-09 before the verdict, vs Kalshi ~40% — correct on the outcome, probabilistically; not a forecast of the SOL mechanism.

Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)

Called May 4, 2026 · Resolved Jun 28, 2026

MISS
EHIQ
50%
vs
polymarket
50%
0 pp vs 50%

Billboard / Luminate: 463,000 units (449K streaming).

All resolved real-time calls

HITNRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck70%Jun 30, 2026HITLittle v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports82% / mkt 72%Jun 30, 2026HITTrump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down78%Jun 30, 2026HITTrump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned75%Jun 29, 2026HITTrump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?30%Jun 29, 2026HITDrake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K75%Jun 28, 2026MISSDrake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)10% / mkt 16%Jun 28, 2026HITSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion55%Jun 28, 2026MISSSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%50%Jun 28, 2026HITBoC 2026-06-04 — Hold at 2.25%63%Jun 28, 2026MISSChong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)85% / mkt 90%Jun 28, 2026MISSOh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)15% / mkt 10%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner20% / mkt 18%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner17% / mkt 34%Jun 28, 2026HITLA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner66% / mkt 45%Jun 28, 2026HITMatt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place7% / mkt 2%Jun 28, 2026HITKatie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place11% / mkt 1%Jun 28, 2026HITTom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place35% / mkt 34%Jun 28, 2026HITXavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place52% / mkt 49%Jun 28, 2026HITMullin v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5) — government wins on asylum metering65%Jun 25, 2026HITIván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)20% / mkt 42%Jun 24, 2026CALIBRATIONAbelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)28% / mkt 40%Jun 24, 2026HITDrake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 1265%Jun 12, 2026HITDrake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 1590%Jun 12, 2026MISSBC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins80% / mkt 81%May 31, 2026HITPaloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)10% / mkt 20%May 31, 2026HITClaudia López win (Colombia 2026)2% / mkt 6%May 31, 2026HITPSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation75%May 8, 2026HITOPEN Q1 FY26 — Reffkin pattern Type A70%May 7, 2026HITNXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus75%May 6, 2026CALIBRATIONDAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration75%May 5, 2026HITBulgaria — Radev presidential call85% / mkt 95%Apr 19, 2026

Currently open (35)

Live calls awaiting resolution. Premium subscribers see the full thesis behind each.

OPENJD Vance — 2028 GOP nomination (market underrates the favorite)EHIQ 45%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms NewsomEHIQ 38%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)EHIQ 35%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — JD VanceEHIQ 27%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — Gavin NewsomEHIQ 15%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPENUS House control 2026EHIQ 65%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENUS Senate control 2026EHIQ 47%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENv18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)EHIQ 62%resolves Jun 10, 2026OPENParis Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" rulingEHIQ 56%resolves Jul 8, 2026OPENBCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%EHIQ 65%resolves Aug 31, 2026OPENDrake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200EHIQ 72%resolves Sep 1, 2026OPENLula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 58%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENFlávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 22%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENOlivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 68%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENBrad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 22%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENGA Senate — Ossoff retentionEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO priceEHIQ 35%resolves Dec 9, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10ppEHIQ 40%resolves Dec 14, 2026OPENBlackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENBTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 50%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENCLARITY Act signed into law by Dec 31 2026EHIQ 62%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissalEHIQ 75%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENNo Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)EHIQ 40%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake top Spotify artist 2026EHIQ 20%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENBad Bunny, not Drake, is the 2026 global #1 artistEHIQ 86%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENGameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)EHIQ 8%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative unitsEHIQ 60%resolves May 15, 2027OPENDrake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecastEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 20, 2027OPENFive9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 60%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENBraze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENMicrosoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027EHIQ 65%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENDrake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENGavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominationEHIQ 16%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENCompagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascadeEHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2028OPENMark Mulroney as next CPC leaderEHIQ 45%resolves —

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Calls posted before resolution to the EHIQ predictions ledger. Backtests excluded from headline hit-rate. Methodology and full call history at /predictions.