Mortgage Channel
Mortgage/housing transmission channel of financial conditions (Kawa/Odd Lots framework). Reads whether a rate move is actually transmitting through the 30Y mortgage rate into housing activity (starts + permits), not just whether rates are high. States: TRANSMITTING-TIGHT (tightening getting through), EASING (easing getting through), DRAG (easing but housing falling anyway — growth damage), ABSORBING (tightening, boom carrying on), STALLED / STALLED-HIGH (impulse present, channel clogged — lock-in), NON-RATE-MOVE, QUIET. Fleet state maps TRANSMITTING-TIGHT to RISING/SEVERE, STALLED-HIGH and DRAG to ELEVATED; the channel label rides in metadata with a read-through to the rate-sensitive consumer cohort (OPEN).
State History
State Definitions
STALLED (rates moving, housing not responding, level not extreme), ABSORBING (tightening not yet biting), or NON-RATE-MOVE (housing moving on non-rate drivers).
TRANSMITTING-TIGHT — tightening is getting through the mortgage channel into housing activity.
TRANSMITTING-TIGHT with transmission pressure (z_mr - z_act) >= 3 — the 2022 ramp shape.
EASING or QUIET — easing transmitting, or no impulse and nothing to transmit.
STALLED-HIGH (rates high and the channel clogged — lock-in) or DRAG (rates easing but housing falling anyway — growth damage).
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.