Every call. Every void. Recompute it yourself.

-- HIT_RATE_QUERY_v1 · 2026-09-10 · binds to the level chosen in §4
-- VOID RULE: verdict-bearing resolved rows only; voids excluded by construction,
--            void COUNTS reported alongside (second query below).
SELECT
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE hit = true)::int  AS hits,
  COUNT(*)::int                            AS n
FROM prediction_calls
WHERE status = 'resolved'
  AND hit IS NOT NULL                       -- void rule: no verdict, no seat
  AND is_backtest = false                   -- retrospective-row rule (live-only)
  AND opened_at >= '2026-01-01'::timestamptz
  AND resolved_at >= '2026-04-15'::timestamptz
  -- STRICTNESS LEVEL: RULED (d) 2026-09-10-B — the strict block is ACTIVE:
  AND market_source NOT IN ('unrecorded','none','no_free_source')
  AND (
        (market_prob_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_source_at_open IS NOT NULL
           AND market_source_at_open <> 'none')
     OR (market_source_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_source_at_open <> 'none')
     OR criterion_stamped_at IS NOT NULL
     OR (ehiq_prob_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_prob IS NOT NULL))
  AND market_source_at_open IS DISTINCT FROM 'no_market'   -- absolute track never mixes
;
-- companion VOID-COUNT query (published next to n, every time):
SELECT
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE status='withdrawn')::int AS withdrawn,
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE status='duplicate')::int AS duplicate,
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE status='closed')::int    AS closed,
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE status='resolved' AND hit IS NULL)::int AS resolved_no_verdict
FROM prediction_calls WHERE is_backtest = false;

-- GATE_QUERY_v1 · 2026-09-10 · "resolved calls that declared a market at creation"
-- The gate binds to the SAME strictness level as HIT_RATE_QUERY_v1 (§4), counted
-- here as the resolved subset; the 75 target is REGISTRATIONS by 2026-11-03 with
-- creation-time declaration (R1–R4), i.e. same predicate without status='resolved'.
SELECT COUNT(*)::int AS gate_resolved
FROM prediction_calls
WHERE status = 'resolved'
  AND hit IS NOT NULL
  AND is_backtest = false
  AND opened_at >= '2026-01-01'::timestamptz
  AND resolved_at >= '2026-04-15'::timestamptz
  AND market_source NOT IN ('unrecorded','none','no_free_source')
  AND ( (market_prob_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_source_at_open IS NOT NULL
           AND market_source_at_open <> 'none')
     OR (market_source_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_source_at_open <> 'none')
     OR criterion_stamped_at IS NOT NULL
     OR (ehiq_prob_at_open IS NOT NULL AND market_prob IS NOT NULL) )
  AND market_source_at_open IS DISTINCT FROM 'no_market';
-- result on 2026-09-10 pull (level d, verdict-bearing, absolute-track excluded):
-- 30 resolved / 20 hits (verified two ways, macmini; delta rows 147, 254, 16 named in §4)
-- REGISTERED (same predicate, all statuses, no verdict clause): 76 (31 resolved, 33 active)