Strategic-Metals War Sensor (Tungsten-Primary)
War anticipation measured in metal demand, not headlines: military procurement shows up in tungsten APT before conflict (armor-piercing projectiles, cluster munitions; China-dominated supply; minimal civilian-cycle exposure — Fickling 2026-08-04). Tungsten-primary states off L_t = max(robust-z of 63d trend, 21d acceleration) on the Europe APT Rotterdam series: CALM / PROCURING (>= +1.5) / MOBILIZING (>= +2.0). Copper and SOX print as a breadth qualifier (metadata, never state-driving); the Europe/China APT wedge prints the bulcanization premium. The estate's geopolitical-risk sensor reads the GPR news layer; this sensor reads the procurement layer — disjoint inputs (Jaccard 0.270 over the 2026 overlap).
State History
State Definitions
CALM — tungsten APT inside its own trailing distribution; no procurement signature.
MOBILIZING — tungsten L_t >= +2.0: the level the pre-invasion Ukraine acceleration produced (2022-02-17, 7 days ahead).
PROCURING — tungsten L_t >= +1.5: unusual strength in the war-specific metal (trend or acceleration).
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.