Sovereign Credibility
The ECB's TPI trigger logic, instrumented: is a sovereign spread move WARRANTED (fundamentals-paced fiscal repricing the ECB can ignore) or DISORDERLY (the move the Transmission Protection Instrument was built for)? Per sovereign, per day: 4 disorderly signatures (gap-widen, cross-sovereign contagion, bank-equity contagion, FX dislocation — auction failure DECLARED ABSENT for v1) drive a 3-state machine with hysteresis: CONTAINED (0) / WATCHING (exactly 1) / CONTAGION (>=2).
State History
State Definitions
CONTAGION — two or more signatures: the TPI-shaped condition.
CONTAINED — no disorderly signatures.
WATCHING — exactly one disorderly signature active.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.