macro/high confidence
Commodity Basket Stress Sensor
Commodity basket stress sensor tracking cross-commodity divergences.
STABLE
Live
Since Jul 6, 20262 people watching4 total views
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
161 readings|0 state changes|STABLE: 100%
Track record
NORMAL
17 fires since 2021 · 71% hit · median 21d +3.7% on SPY
validated
STABLE
12 fires since 2021 · 75% hit · median 21d +3.4% on SPY
validated
ELEVATED
10 fires since 2021 · 20% hit · median 21d +6.0% on SPY
contrarian
SEVERE
3 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d +8.0% on SPY
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
NORMAL
Score 1 -- mild stress.
SEVERE
Score >= 4 -- extreme commodity dislocation.
STABLE
Score 0 -- no commodity stress.
ELEVATED
Score 2-3 -- multiple stress signals.
Sources
Fires Together With
Real Rate Regime Sensor
44d overlapSEVERE
VIX Regime Sensor
23d overlapSTABLE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
22d overlapRISING
Management Behavior Index
22d overlapELEVATED
Behavioral Watchlist
22d overlapELEVATED
Mobility Demand Composite
21d overlapNEUTRAL
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.