macro/high confidence
Commodity Basket Stress Sensor
Commodity basket stress sensor tracking cross-commodity divergences.
STABLE
Live
Since Jul 3, 20262 people watching4 total views
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
988 readings|12 state changes|STABLE: 97%NORMAL: 3%
State Definitions
NORMAL
Score 1 -- mild stress.
SEVERE
Score >= 4 -- extreme commodity dislocation.
STABLE
Score 0 -- no commodity stress.
ELEVATED
Score 2-3 -- multiple stress signals.
Sources
Fires Together With
Real Rate Regime Sensor
44d overlapELEVATED
Treasury General Account Liquidity
31d overlapSEVERE
Cycle-Funding Divergence
29d overlapSTABLE
VIX Regime Sensor
23d overlapSTABLE
Management Behavior Index
22d overlapELEVATED
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
22d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.