crypto/MEDIUM confidence
GARCH Convergence
BTC implied vol mispricing: Deribit DVOL (implied) vs GARCH(1,1)-forecast realized vol from daily prices. Ratio = IV / GARCH forecast; the options-market fear gauge against what realized vol actually justifies.
STABLE
Live
Since Oct 3, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
163 readings|0 state changes|STABLE: 100%
State Definitions
RISING
IV premium building — options pricing more forward risk than realized justifies.
SEVERE
Extreme IV premium or crash in realized — vol regime break.
STABLE
IV in line with GARCH-forecast realized vol.
ELEVATED
Sustained gap — smart money hedging a known catalyst, or shorts crowding the vol-selling trade.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.