Stablecoin Stress Sensor
Multi-feature settlement stress sensor using 6 of 9 canonical stablecoin_iq features. Tracks per-stablecoin peg deviation, supply delta, mint/burn volume, and net issuance. Complements the single-metric stablecoin_supply sensor.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Peg deviation 0.2-0.5% OR net issuance -1% to -3%. Flows fragmenting, preferences shifting.
Peg deviation > 1.0% OR net issuance < -5%. Sustained peg breaks, liquidity withdrawal, settlement failure risk.
Peg deviation < 0.2%. Net issuance non-negative. Settlement layer operating normally.
Peg deviation 0.5-1.0% OR net issuance -3% to -5%. Redemptions spiking, congestion visible.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.