macro/MEDIUM confidence
Cross-Market Stress Spread
Spread between macro stress and crypto internal stress.
STABLE
38d stale
Since Mar 6, 20261 person watching
State History
No history data available yet.
Track record
LOW
4 fires since 2021 · 25% hit · median 21d -2.7% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
STABLE
1 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d -2.0% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
BALANCED
Stress levels aligned.
MACRO LEADING
Macro stress exceeds crypto stress.
CRYPTO LEADING
Crypto stress exceeds macro stress.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.