fundamental/MEDIUM confidence

Reversion Speed

The tape's mean-reversion speedometer (clock-2): the median half-life (days to >=50% retrace, cap 20d) of >=2-sigma single-name moves across the book's names + spec basket + index controls. FAST (trailing-30d median well below the 24-month band) = churn/dispersion regime — reversions machinery speeding up; SLOW (well above the band) = trending-stress regime — >=2-sigma moves do NOT revert; NORMAL inside the band; LOW-N (<5 qualifying events, declared, never a fake median). The capped share (moves that never reverted) is part of the state print, not a footnote. Fleet map: FAST -> ELEVATED, NORMAL -> NORMAL, SLOW -> STABLE, LOW-N -> NONE. Daily recompute of the trailing 30-day event window; staleness > 3d -> mock (refused at the ingest door).

NORMAL
Live
Since Oct 3, 2026

State History

NONE
NORMAL
STABLE
ELEVATED
54 readings|0 state changes|NORMAL: 100%

State Definitions

NONE

LOW-N — fewer than 5 qualifying events in the window (declared, never a fake median).

NORMAL

Inside the band.

STABLE

SLOW — median half-life well above the band: trending-stress regime, moves not reverting.

ELEVATED

FAST — median half-life well below the 24-month band: churn/dispersion regime, reversions speeding up.

Sources

Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.