Risk Appetite Index
Weighted 0-100 composite from all Tier 1 sensor states.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Balanced risk appetite. No strong directional signal.
Constructive risk environment. Most sensors stable or supportive.
Extreme risk appetite. Complacency indicators elevated. Historically fragile.
Defensive positioning. Several sensors showing stress. Caution warranted.
Extreme risk aversion. Multiple sensors in ELEVATED/SEVERE. Historically associated with cycle bottoms.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.