Correlation to One
The correlation-regime trigger for the rate-pressure family and the board (Kawa 2022 framework, spec stamped 2026-10-03): when cross-asset correlations go to one, stop tilting and control risk. CORRELATIONS-COUPLING carries risk_control_override=True for the board/CONCERT — a risk-control override, never a directional call. Measure (v2.0, frozen): sign-adjusted 60-day mean correlation across the estate's core legs (risk-risk +1; risk-yield -1; risk-credit -1; yield-credit +1), with unsigned |corr| printed as the shock-coupling corroborator. v1.x unsigned measure falsified for 2022 and replaced — declared in the build memo.
State History
State Definitions
LOW-N — fewer than 4 legs available (declared, never zero, never a state).
DECOUPLED — d60 below the P25 calibration floor.
CORRELATIONS-COUPLING — d60 >= max(P90, 0.25): correlations going to one; risk-control override fires.
NORMAL — correlations inside the calibrated band.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.