The November gate
verified resolved calls by November 3, 2026
Verified means: resolved, and the market was named when the call was published — not backfilled after the outcome.
Official 41 = strict 35 + 6 named rows (5 hits) — shown in full
These six predate our 2026-07-23 provenance standard. We count them in the official reading and name them. The strict reading excludes them.
| call | resolved | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| scotus-trump-v-slaughter-2026 | 2026-06-29 | HIT |
| scotus-birthright-citizenship-2026 | 2026-06-30 | HIT |
| scotus-nrsc-v-fec-2026 | 2026-06-30 | HIT |
| scotus-mullin-v-al-otro-lado-2026 | 2026-06-25 | HIT |
| spcx-first-day-pop-over-20pct-2026 | 2026-06-28 | MISS |
| spcx-eod1-mcap-over-2t-2026 | 2026-06-28 | HIT |
v1 (stored column) and v2 (policy verdict)
Same calls and the same count toward 75; v1 counts the stored hit column, v2 counts a hit only when the at-open number we show is verifiable and pointed the right way (SCORING_POLICY v1.1).
| reading | v1 hits | v2 hits |
|---|---|---|
| strict (35) | 23 | 10 |
| official (41) | 28 | 13 |
| scotus-trump-v-slaughter-2026 | HIT | NOT SCORED |
| scotus-birthright-citizenship-2026 | HIT | HIT |
| scotus-nrsc-v-fec-2026 | HIT | HIT |
| scotus-mullin-v-al-otro-lado-2026 | HIT | HIT |
| spcx-first-day-pop-over-20pct-2026 | MISS | NO DIRECTION |
| spcx-eod1-mcap-over-2t-2026 | HIT | NOT SCORED |
v2 = GATE_QUERY_v2: the v1 predicate verbatim, hit = policy verdict (contract HIT_RATE_DENOMINATOR_AND_GATE_v2_2026-10-16).
As of 2026-10-15: 34 to go, 2.7 weeks left — pace needed 12.6 per week (20 per week through October 27).
The gate is back-loaded: the November 3 midterms cohort resolves on election night. The pace line measures registrations and resolutions through election day, not a smooth weekly ramp.