SPEC Composite
The broad retail speculative-flow composite: composite z of four retail-speculative legs over the spec basket — (1) BJZZ+QMP small-trade imbalance (mean of per-name window z's), (2) <=7-DTE OTM call aggressive-buy notional (rolling-60 z), (3) basket 20d mean return (rolling-60 z), (4) basket pairwise co-movement (rolling-60 z). Composite = mean of the AVAILABLE legs (declared-absent, never zero-filled; n_legs printed on every read; zero available legs = NONE/LOW-N, never a fake composite). Raw states COLD / COOL / WARM / SPECULATING / MANIA on the composite z mapped STABLE / NORMAL / RISING / ELEVATED / SEVERE. Reads regimes, not names — the single-name companion is spec-singlename (companion, never pooled; the composite is structurally blind to single-name squeezes by construction, proven in the v1 NULL memo).
State History
State Definitions
COOL — composite z in [-1, 0): below-average speculative flow.
WARM — composite z in [0, 1): above-average speculative flow.
MANIA — composite z >= 2: full speculative mania (the Oct-2025 co-peak / Jun-2026 peak class).
COLD — composite z < -1: speculative flow absent.
SPECULATING — composite z in [1, 2): speculative regime engaged.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.