Divergence Tracker
Where EHIQ’s probability disagrees most with the market price right now. Each call is dated, priced against the named venue, and linked so you can see the market for yourself. Ranked by the size of the gap.
Prices come from the same refresh that feeds our weekly digest. A price older than 6 hours (election window) is withheld rather than shown stale. See the full graded record on /predictions. Election calls only: the midterm board on /elections.
Active divergences
15 trackedWill Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska US Senate election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 67% on Sep 20, 2026, market was 60% at open.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 4% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 4%; documented open 3%.
Will Drake be the top artist on Spotify in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ 20% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 29%; documented open 38%.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 4% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 5%; documented open 2%.
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ 10% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 15%; documented open 8%.
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ 16% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 20%.
Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ 62% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration; documented open 55%.
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 16% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 17% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 45% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 63% at open.
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 26% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 47% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 42% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 57% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 45% at open.
Will the Democratic (DFL) nominee, Peggy Flanagan, win the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 72% on Oct 18, 2026, market was 87% at open.
Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?
Provenance: EHIQ 87% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), market mid was 81%.
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ 50% registered on Jul 26, 2026 (reconstructed from the stored open, not pre-registered), no market at registration.