Divergence Tracker
Where EHIQ’s probability disagrees most with the market price right now. Each call is dated, priced against the named venue, and linked so you can see the market for yourself. Ranked by the size of the gap.
Prices come from the same refresh that feeds our weekly digest. A price older than 24 hours is withheld rather than shown stale. See the full graded record on /predictions. Election calls only: the midterm board on /elections.
Active divergences
35 trackedWill Ethereum trade at or below $1,500 at any point before Dec 31, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 88% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 80% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 62% on Jul 26, 2026, no market at registration (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 68% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 50% at open.
Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 65% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 78% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 55% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 77% at open.
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 68% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 77% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 50% on Jul 26, 2026, no market at registration (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will JD Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 32% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 41% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 45% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 37% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 57% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 45% at open.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 33% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 42% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 38% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 41% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 47% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 55% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 20% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 29% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 45% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 63% at open.
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 17% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 4% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 5% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 4% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 4% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 15% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 17% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 7% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 1% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 16% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 17% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 27% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 19% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 47% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 42% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 8% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 3% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 26% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 6% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 2% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 2% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 5% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil 2026 presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 4% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 6% at open.
Will Bad Bunny be named the #1 most-streamed global artist on Spotify Wrapped 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 87% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 80% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 8% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 20% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 10% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 15% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 16% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 20% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 87% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 81% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 2% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 3% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates at least once in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 40% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 47% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).