macro/high confidence

Lending Conditions

Private lending market stress composite. Tracks credit conditions across direct lending channels.

STABLE

Live

Since Oct 2, 2026

3 people watching

State History

NORMAL

SEVERE

STABLE

ELEVATED

155 readings|2 state changes|STABLE: 94%NORMAL: 6%

Track record

NORMAL

14 fires since 2021 · 36% hit · median 21d -2.2% on BTC-USD

contrarian

STABLE

8 fires since 2021 · 38% hit · median 21d -1.6% on BTC-USD

contrarian

Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.

State Definitions

NORMAL

Score 1 -- mild tightening.

SEVERE

Score >= 4 -- credit crunch conditions.

STABLE

Score 0 -- credit conditions healthy.

ELEVATED

Score 2-3 -- significant credit stress.

Sources

FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2

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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.