crypto/HIGH confidence
IV-RV Spread (Variance Risk Premium)
Deribit DVOL minus 30-day realized vol. When options overprice fear relative to realized conditions, subsequent BTC returns are positive. Correlation: 0.172 with 21d direction.
STABLE
7h ago
Since Sep 19, 20261 person watching2 total views
State History
28 readings|0 state changes|STABLE: 100%
Track record
STABLE
19 fires since 2021 · 74% hit · median 21d +4.6% on BTC-USD
validated
RISING
17 fires since 2021 · 53% hit · median 21d -0.2% on BTC-USD
no-content
DECLINING
6 fires since 2021 · 17% hit · median 21d +7.0% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
ELEVATED
3 fires since 2021 · 67% hit · median 21d -1.6% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
SEVERE
3 fires since 2021 · 100% hit · median 21d -1.6% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
51d overlapSEVERE
Polymarket IQ
50d overlapELEVATED
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
48d overlapRISING
Eth Gas Fee Regime
43d overlapRISING
Eth L2 Throughput
35d overlapCALM
CROSSFIRE Offshore Crypto
33d overlapWARMING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.