Executive Sentiment Divergence
Divergence between executive transactions and market consensus.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Minor divergence between insider actions and narrative. Some mismatch in 20-40% range.
Strong divergence (>60%). Heavy insider selling despite bullish narrative, or heavy buying despite bearish. Highest-conviction belief dislocation signal.
Insider buying/selling patterns consistent with public narrative sentiment. No divergence detected.
Clear divergence. Insiders selling while narrative is bullish, or buying while bearish. Warning signal.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.