crypto/MEDIUM confidence
Eth Eip1559 Burn Rate
CALM
Live
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State History
168 readings|11 state changes|ELEVATED: 35%NEUTRAL: 32%RISING: 18%
Track record
ELEVATED
22 fires since 2021 · 64% hit · median 21d -0.7% on BTC-USD
validated
CALM
22 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +0.4% on BTC-USD
no-content
NEUTRAL
24 fires since 2021 · 54% hit · median 21d +1.7% on BTC-USD
no-content
RISING
26 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +1.0% on BTC-USD
no-content
STRESSED
9 fires since 2021 · 56% hit · median 21d -0.3% on BTC-USD
no-content
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
65d overlapSEVERE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
60d overlapRISING
Real Rate Regime Sensor
56d overlapSEVERE
Polymarket IQ
54d overlapELEVATED
Eth Gas Fee Regime
50d overlapRISING
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
48d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.