Kawa Rate Pressure
Cross-asset long-end rate pressure per the Luke Kawa framework (Odd Lots): yields are set by the growth impulse transmitted through REAL yields, with credibility shocks as a separate mode. Speed, not level. Two modes: GROWTH-LED (default: z of real-10Y 4-week change + growth leg copper/SPXEW/SX5E + SPX leg, breakeven anchor, BTC-dominance and earnings-faith legs at w=0.5) and CREDIBILITY (inflation-swap z outside the 0.5 band: real-yield z plus clipped swap z, no equity leg). v5.0.0 stamped 2026-10-01 with frozen episode bars (2022 SEVERE+TIGHTENING >= 40%, zero EASING at the Oct-2022 peak) and a beaten naive baseline every year 2023-2026. This is the engine behind the public EHIQ RATE DNA print.
State History
State Definitions
TIGHTENING — pressure score >= 1: long-end rate pressure building.
Pressure score >= 2 — the 2022 ramp shape; in credibility mode, the long end itself is being doubted.
Pressure score < 1 — NEUTRAL, or EASING (score <= -1, carried as a pressure label in metadata; falling pressure is never an alarm state).
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.