Issuance Calendar
Per-month issuance-calendar state over the Creativity Watch's hyperscaler/AI-infra name set (ORCL, META, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA + CRWV metadata-only). Reads whether the USD bond-issuance channel is flowing: OPEN (flowing), FRONT-LOADED (supply pulled forward — trail3/median >= 1.75), PAUSED (zero-USD month without crack pre-conditions), AIR-POCKET (zero issuance AND no front-load relief AND forward maturities exceeding demonstrated placement capacity AND credit widening — the crack pre-condition). EDGAR-primary (Bloomberg bond-level declared ABSENT after entitlement probes); ORCL CDS and CDX IG supply the stress legs; NON-USD deals ride as a native-currency footnote (the routing-around signature).
State History
State Definitions
PAUSED — a zero-USD month that is not an air pocket (relief happened, no unmet need, or credit calm).
FRONT-LOADED — supply pulled forward: trailing-3-month issuance >= 1.75x the trailing-36-month median with >= $2B placed.
AIR-POCKET with the forward 12-month wall >= 2x trailing-12-month demonstrated placement.
OPEN — the issuance channel is flowing at non-extreme levels.
AIR-POCKET — zero issuance, no relief, maturities exceed demonstrated capacity, credit widening: the channel is shut into need.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.