macro/MEDIUM confidence
Sector Rotation
Capital rotation from tech/growth into defensives: XLK vs XLV/XLF/XLE/XLU sector ETFs. Tech underperforming defensives by >5% over 21d marks a rotation underway — the move that precedes or accompanies growth selloffs.
STABLE
Live
Since Oct 3, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
163 readings|0 state changes|STABLE: 100%
State Definitions
RISING
Rotation building (spread approaching the 5% mark).
SEVERE
Violent rotation — flight from growth at speed.
STABLE
No rotation — tech at or ahead of defensives.
ELEVATED
Rotation underway — tech trailing defensives by >5% over 21d.
Sources
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
60d overlapSEVERE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
60d overlapSEVERE
Polymarket IQ
60d overlapELEVATED
Growth Valuation
60d overlapSEVERE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
60d overlapRISING
Management Behavior Index
60d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.