crypto/MEDIUM confidence
Eth Gas Fee Regime
RISING
Live
3 people watching
State History
168 readings|59 state changes|STRESSED: 32%RISING: 30%NEUTRAL: 21%
Track record
RISING
15 fires since 2021 · 60% hit · median 21d -0.6% on BTC-USD
validated
CALM
57 fires since 2021 · 49% hit · median 21d -0.2% on BTC-USD
no-content
NEUTRAL
40 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +0.1% on BTC-USD
no-content
ELEVATED
4 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +4.6% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
STRESSED
3 fires since 2021 · 67% hit · median 21d -0.3% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
118d overlapSEVERE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
116d overlapRISING
Polymarket IQ
113d overlapELEVATED
Real Rate Regime Sensor
95d overlapSEVERE
Growth Valuation
92d overlapSEVERE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
84d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.