Employment Health Sensor
Monitors US employment via nonfarm payrolls, initial claims, and continuing claims from FRED. Rising claims precede every recession.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Claims 225-275K -- healthy range.
Claims > 350K or NFP < -100K -- recession-level.
Claims 4wk avg < 225K -- strong labor market.
Claims 275-350K -- weakening, recession risk building.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
People Also Watch
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.