macro/MEDIUM confidence
MOVE Index
The ICE BofA MOVE Index — implied volatility of US Treasury options, the bond market's VIX. When MOVE spikes, rates uncertainty cascades into credit, equities, and crypto. Oct 2023 hit ~160 on the term-premium repricing.
RISING
Live
Since Oct 3, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
163 readings|1 state change|RISING: 73%STABLE: 27%
State Definitions
RISING
Rates vol building.
SEVERE
MOVE at crisis levels (Oct 2023 shape).
STABLE
MOVE in its normal band.
ELEVATED
MOVE elevated — rates uncertainty driving cross-asset chop.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.