Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
Baker-Bloom-Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Academic measure of policy-related economic uncertainty.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
EPU < 100. Policy uncertainty below historical average. Stable policy environment.
EPU 150-200. Elevated uncertainty. Caution warranted.
EPU > 300. Crisis-level uncertainty. COVID peak was 500+. Extreme caution.
EPU 100-150. Normal policy uncertainty. Standard conditions.
EPU 200-300. High policy uncertainty. Significant market impact expected.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.