macro/high confidence
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Monitors Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index (the academic standard used by the Fed) plus defense ETF and oil for conflict confirmation.
RISING
Live
Since Aug 19, 20262 people watching
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
162 readings|69 state changes|RISING: 53%ELEVATED: 24%NORMAL: 22%
State Definitions
NORMAL
GPR 100-150 -- average geopolitical environment.
SEVERE
GPR > 250 -- extreme crisis.
STABLE
GPR < 100 -- below-average risk.
ELEVATED
GPR 150-250 -- heightened risk, active conflicts.
Sources
Fires Together With
Real Rate Regime Sensor
139d overlapELEVATED
Behavioral Watchlist
133d overlapELEVATED
Management Behavior Index
133d overlapELEVATED
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
133d overlapELEVATED
Promotional Yield Anomaly
120d overlapSEVERE
Treasury General Account Liquidity
99d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.