macro/high confidence
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Monitors Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index (the academic standard used by the Fed) plus defense ETF and oil for conflict confirmation.
NORMAL
Live
Since Mar 8, 2026State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
260 readings|0 state changes|NORMAL: 100%
State Definitions
NORMAL
GPR 100-150 -- average geopolitical environment.
SEVERE
GPR > 250 -- extreme crisis.
STABLE
GPR < 100 -- below-average risk.
ELEVATED
GPR 150-250 -- heightened risk, active conflicts.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.