macro/high confidence
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Monitors Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index (the academic standard used by the Fed) plus defense ETF and oil for conflict confirmation.
RISING
Live
Since Oct 3, 20262 people watching
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
162 readings|70 state changes|RISING: 49%ELEVATED: 21%NORMAL: 13%
Track record
RISING
83 fires since 2021 · 27% hit · median 21d +2.8% on SPY
contrarian
SEVERE
12 fires since 2021 · 25% hit · median 21d +2.4% on SPY
contrarian
NORMAL
57 fires since 2021 · 53% hit · median 21d +0.1% on SPY
no-content
ELEVATED
5 fires since 2021 · 40% hit · median 21d +1.2% on SPY
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
NORMAL
GPR 100-150 -- average geopolitical environment.
SEVERE
GPR > 250 -- extreme crisis.
STABLE
GPR < 100 -- below-average risk.
ELEVATED
GPR 150-250 -- heightened risk, active conflicts.
Sources
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
164d overlapSEVERE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
158d overlapSEVERE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
141d overlapRISING
Management Behavior Index
141d overlapELEVATED
Behavioral Watchlist
141d overlapELEVATED
Polymarket IQ
136d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.