macro/high confidence
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Monitors Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index (the academic standard used by the Fed) plus defense ETF and oil for conflict confirmation.
RISING
Live
Since May 19, 2026State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
1000 readings|249 state changes|RISING: 88%SEVERE: 12%NORMAL: 0%
State Definitions
NORMAL
GPR 100-150 -- average geopolitical environment.
SEVERE
GPR > 250 -- extreme crisis.
STABLE
GPR < 100 -- below-average risk.
ELEVATED
GPR 150-250 -- heightened risk, active conflicts.
Sources
Fires Together With
Treasury General Account Liquidity
53d overlapSEVERE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
51d overlapELEVATED
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
45d overlapELEVATED
Management Behavior Index
45d overlapELEVATED
Behavioral Watchlist
45d overlapELEVATED
Cycle-Funding Divergence
40d overlapSTABLE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.