macro/high confidence
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
Monitors Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index (the academic standard used by the Fed) plus defense ETF and oil for conflict confirmation.
NORMAL
Live
Since Jul 5, 20262 people watching
State History
NORMAL
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
1000 readings|272 state changes|NORMAL: 86%SEVERE: 14%
State Definitions
NORMAL
GPR 100-150 -- average geopolitical environment.
SEVERE
GPR > 250 -- extreme crisis.
STABLE
GPR < 100 -- below-average risk.
ELEVATED
GPR 150-250 -- heightened risk, active conflicts.
Sources
Fires Together With
Treasury General Account Liquidity
96d overlapSEVERE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
94d overlapELEVATED
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
88d overlapELEVATED
Management Behavior Index
88d overlapELEVATED
Behavioral Watchlist
88d overlapELEVATED
Cross-Venue Depeg Detector
75d overlapSTABLE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
People Also Watch
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.