EHIQ Accuracy
Every probability call EHIQ publishes is logged before resolution and graded against the prevailing market (Kalshi, Polymarket, or the closest comparable). Hits, misses, and calibration notes all live here. No edits. No deletions. The math below is the whole math.
The math
Clean hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses + calibration notes). We count a call as a hit only when both the outcome AND the EHIQ rationale resolve correctly. A right outcome reached via wrong reasoning becomes a calibration note — counted separately, never silently folded into the headline.
Edge at call time = absolute difference (in percentage points) between EHIQ's published probability and the prevailing market probability at the moment EHIQ posted. Averaged across all resolved real-time calls.
What's excluded: 4 historical validation runs (Brexit, Biden 2020, Carney 2025, etc.) are kept on the predictions page in a separate “Historical Validation” section. They never blend into the headline hit rate — only real-time, dated, pre-resolution calls are counted here.
Hit rate by category
Every resolved call · 56
See active calls →- HITStocks (corporate)Sep 19, 2026
OpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026
Criterion re-stamped 2026-09-06, 9 days before resolution and before the outcome is known. The 2026-09-02 criterion graded on Polymarket settlement; that market does not exist. Graded on the absolute track against the outcome. Probability, direction and date unchanged.
EHIQ 50%vs mkt 47% - HITStocks (corporate)Sep 14, 2026
Apple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event
EHIQ 80% - HITbiotechSep 5, 2026
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide
EHIQ 50% - HITbiotechSep 5, 2026
FDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib
EHIQ 50% - HITMacro & CryptoSep 2, 2026
Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026
BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a 7th consecutive decision, 2026-09-02 09:45 ET statement. Consensus read (Reuters 35/35, OIS 95-99%) confirmed.
EHIQ 95% - HITprivate_creditSep 1, 2026
BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%
EHIQ 65% - MISSprivate_creditSep 1, 2026
FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1
EHIQ 60% - MISSElectionsSep 1, 2026
Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)
EHIQ 25% - HITbiotechSep 1, 2026
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy
EHIQ 50% - HITStocks (corporate)Sep 1, 2026
Drake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200
EHIQ 72%vs mkt 77% - HITStocks (corporate)Aug 30, 2026
Seahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting
EHIQ 92% - MISSElectionsAug 26, 2026
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3.
EHIQ 18%vs mkt 35% - MISSElectionsAug 13, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary
El-Sayed WON the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary on 2026-08-04, 48.5% to Haley Stevens' 47.5%, a 1-point margin. Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 42%, below even, so this is a MISS. NOTE FOR THE RECORD: the market had 65% and was right, so this is a call where the market beat EHIQ on a priced question.
EHIQ 42%vs mkt 65% - MISSbiotechAug 13, 2026
FDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)
The Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee voted 3 for, 9 against, 0 abstaining on 2026-07-29, the exact horizon date, finding the evidence did not support effectiveness of deramiocel for DMD cardiomyopathy. The call asked whether it would vote favorably, so the outcome is NO and EHIQ's 60% was a MISS. The voting question addressed a narrower indication than Capricor proposed and the vote is non-binding; neither changes the answer to the question as written.
EHIQ 60% - MISSbiotechAug 13, 2026
FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)
The advisory committee voted 10-3 FAVORABLY that the IGNYTE efficacy results are evaluable and clinically meaningful for RP1 + nivolumab, on 2026-07-30. The call asked whether it would vote UNfavorably, so the outcome is NO and EHIQ's 70% was a MISS. REGISTRATION DEFECT, recorded rather than used as an escape: the call named the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) and the review was by the Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee, the same body the Capricor call named correctly; the stated horizon was ~07-28 and the vote was 07-30. Eric ruled 2026-08-13 that it counts as a loss.
EHIQ 70% - MISSLegal & SCOTUSJul 23, 2026
Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling
The Paris Court of Appeal ruled 2026-07-08 (formation solennelle, on remand from the Cour de cassation) that neither Vincent Bollore, Bollore SE, nor the 'Bollore group' controlled Vivendi -- all CIAM claims rejected, no mandatory tender obligation; the court held de facto control cannot attach to a 'group.' VIV fell ~10.3% on the ruling; CIAM announced a second cassation appeal (pending, does not affect this dated resolution). EHIQ final 56% on rules-against (revised 33->60->52->56, dated in thesis) vs market 35% at open -- the rapporteur-follow prior failed; the sell-side consensus was right. Resolved late (15 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.
EHIQ 56%vs mkt 35% - HITElectionsJul 23, 2026
Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)
Pezeshkian remained President of Iran through June 30 2026; the May 31 resignation-letter report was denied, never accepted, and contradicted by continuous public duties (MoU signing Jun 17-18, Pakistan state visit Jun 23). Polymarket market 1138908 resolved NO (closed 2026-07-01 08:47 UTC). EHIQ 12% vs market 35.7% at open -- the fade was right. Resolved late (23 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.
EHIQ 12%vs mkt 36% - MISSMacro & CryptoJul 23, 2026
v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)
BTC closed 2026-06-10 at $61,449 (Yahoo) / $61,511 (Binance) vs the 2026-05-20 close of $77,458 / $77,552 -- down 20.7%, far below the at-or-above line. The v18 risk-ON gate call (score 0.619, ~62% probability of a higher close 21 days forward) missed. Resolved late (43 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.
EHIQ 62% - MISScultureJul 20, 2026
Future performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
Speculative culture tip, digest-excluded. Same basis and outcome as the Drake call. Logged as a clean miss.
EHIQ 50%vs mkt 6% - MISScultureJul 20, 2026
Drake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show
Speculative culture tip, digest-excluded. EHIQ set 0.50 on conviction against a market that priced ~5% and faded further; the market was right. Logged as a clean miss.
EHIQ 50%vs mkt 5% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 30, 2026
Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down
Graded vs actual ruling (FACT_CHECKER, primary-source).
EHIQ 78% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 30, 2026
NRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck
Graded vs actual ruling (FACT_CHECKER, primary-source).
EHIQ 70% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 30, 2026
Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports
Graded vs actual ruling (FACT_CHECKER, primary-source).
EHIQ 82%vs mkt 72% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 29, 2026
Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?
We put 30% on the Court ALLOWING removal — it blocked it 5-4, so our lean (Cook stays) was correct.
EHIQ 30% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 29, 2026
Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned
Graded vs actual ruling (FACT_CHECKER, primary-source).
EHIQ 75% - HITStocks (corporate)Jun 28, 2026
Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K
Billboard / Rolling Stone: 133,000 units, down 22%.
EHIQ 75% - MISSStocks (corporate)Jun 28, 2026
Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)
Billboard / NME / Complex multi-outlet consensus.
EHIQ 10%vs mkt 16% - MISSStocks (corporate)Jun 28, 2026
Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)
Billboard / Luminate: 463,000 units (449K streaming).
EHIQ 50%vs mkt 50% - HITStocks (corporate)Jun 28, 2026
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion
CNBC: SpaceX market cap tops $2T on debut, June 12 2026.
EHIQ 55% - MISSStocks (corporate)Jun 28, 2026
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%
CNBC: SPCX opened $150, high $176.52, close $161.11, +19.34%.
EHIQ 50% - HITMacro & CryptoJun 28, 2026
BoC 2026-06-04 — Hold at 2.25%
Bank of Canada press release 2026-06-10.
EHIQ 63% - MISSElectionsJun 28, 2026
Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Korea Herald / France24, June 3 2026.
EHIQ 85%vs mkt 93% - MISSElectionsJun 28, 2026
Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)
Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.
EHIQ 15%vs mkt 8% - HITElectionsJun 28, 2026
LA mayoral — Spencer Pratt first-round winner
NBC/ABC7 live results; Pratt→3rd post-count.
EHIQ 20%vs mkt 18% - HITElectionsJun 28, 2026
LA mayoral — Nithya Raman first-round winner
NBC/ABC7 live results; Raman→2nd as late ballots counted.
EHIQ 17%vs mkt 34% - HITElectionsJun 28, 2026
LA mayoral — Karen Bass first-round winner
ABC7/KTLA projections + Wikipedia 2026 LA mayoral election.
EHIQ 66%vs mkt 45% - CALElectionsJun 28, 2026
Matt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-place
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
EHIQ 7%vs mkt 2% - CALElectionsJun 28, 2026
Katie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
EHIQ 11%vs mkt 1% - CALElectionsJun 28, 2026
Tom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-place
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
EHIQ 35%vs mkt 34% - HITElectionsJun 28, 2026
Steve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-place
CA SoS returns: Becerra 28.1%, Hilton 24.7%, Steyer 22.8%.
EHIQ 25%vs mkt 10% - CALElectionsJun 28, 2026
Xavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-place
CA Secretary of State official returns, June 2 2026 primary.
EHIQ 52%vs mkt 49% - HITLegal & SCOTUSJun 25, 2026
Mullin v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5) — government wins on asylum metering
Decided 2026-06-25 (opinion 25-5). EHIQ predicted the government wins on asylum metering. NOTE: distinct from the same-day 6-3 TPS ruling Mullin v. Doe (25-1083), a separate case — not this docket.
EHIQ 65% - CALElectionsJun 24, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)
Runoff resolved (2026-06-24): Iván Cepeda conceded at 9:25 a.m., recognizing Espriella as the new president, and Pacto Histórico withdrew its reclamaciones. Final escrutinio 99.99%: Espriella 49.66% / Cepeda 48.70%, margin ~250,830 votes (~0.96pp — narrowest runoff in Colombian history). "Will Espriella win the presidency" resolves YES — Espriella won. EHIQ faded him at 28% on 2026-05-10 (vs Polymarket 40%): a real-time MISS (isBacktest:false). The documented off-corridor miss — the model under-rated the off-corridor outsider who consolidated AROUND (not within) the establishment; freed establishment probability routed to him, the exact failure the off-corridor consolidation check (methodology note 2026-06-16) was written to correct. Owned publicly in the "I Got Colombia Wrong" Substack.
EHIQ 28%vs mkt 42% - HITElectionsJun 24, 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)
Runoff resolved (2026-06-24): Cepeda conceded at 9:25 a.m. and Pacto Histórico withdrew its reclamaciones. Final escrutinio 99.99%: Espriella 49.66% / Cepeda 48.70%, margin ~250,830 votes (~0.96pp). "Will Cepeda win the presidency" resolves NO — Cepeda lost. EHIQ faded him at 20% on 2026-05-10 (vs Polymarket 42%, the highest-confidence call in the Colombia field) — correct directional fade, real-time (isBacktest:false). First-round leads in Colombian presidentials don't survive runoffs against consolidated opposition, as called.
EHIQ 20%vs mkt 39% - HITStocks (corporate)Jun 12, 2026
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 15
HIT. Drake surpassed 100M Spotify monthly listeners on 2026-06-12 per @chartdata (live Spotify figure) + RatingsGameMusic/InMusicBlog (Jun 12) — 3 days inside the by-EOD-Jun-15 window. Monitor first mis-graded MISS at 2026-06-13 00:00, both prematurely and off the lagging Chartmetric snapshot. Corrected to HIT 2026-06-13.
EHIQ 90% - HITStocks (corporate)Jun 12, 2026
Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 12
HIT. Drake surpassed 100M Spotify monthly listeners on 2026-06-12 (6:46 PM ET) per @chartdata reporting the live Spotify figure, corroborated by RatingsGameMusic and InMusicBlog (both Jun 12). Within the by-EOD-Jun-12 window. Automated monitor first graded MISS at 2026-06-13 00:00 off Chartmetric audience-stats, which aggregates on a ~24h lag and had not yet shown the crossing (99.77M Jun 12, 100.06M Jun 13). Corrected to HIT 2026-06-13.
EHIQ 65% - HITElectionsJun 3, 2026
Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls
Turek won the Iowa Democratic Senate primary 62.6% to Wahls 37.4% (AP projected 2026-06-02, 98%+ counted). EHIQ called Turek at 65-66% against Kalshi's 35%, a +30pp market-fade that paid. The gate-derived call (TIQ + SEM after Layer-3 intra-party haircut) was direction-correct and conviction-correct. Strongest single-call market-fade hit since Brexit (59-day lead) and Biden-Hur (164-day lead). Turek now faces Rep. Ashley Hinson in the November general.
EHIQ 66%vs mkt 35% - MISSElectionsMay 31, 2026
BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins
EHIQ 80%vs mkt 81% - HITElectionsMay 31, 2026
Claudia López win (Colombia 2026)
Eliminated in round 1 (2026-05-31): López did not advance to the June 21 runoff (Espriella 43.77% / Cepeda 40.88%). Her Invamer polling had collapsed 11.7%→3.6% and Alianza Verde endorsed Cepeda (2026-04-14). "Will López win the presidency" resolves NO. EHIQ had her at 2% vs Polymarket 6% — correct fade, real-time (isBacktest:false).
EHIQ 2%vs mkt 6% - HITElectionsMay 31, 2026
Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)
Eliminated in round 1 (2026-05-31): Valencia finished 3rd at ~6.3% and did not advance to the June 21 runoff (Espriella 43.77% / Cepeda 40.88%). "Will Valencia win the presidency" resolves NO. EHIQ faded her at 10% vs Polymarket 20% on 2026-05-10, pre-round-1 — correct directional fade, real-time (isBacktest:false). The establishment Gran-Consulta consolidation vehicle collapsed; per the off-corridor consolidation check (methodology note 2026-06-16), freed probability routed to the off-corridor outsider (Espriella), not the establishment vehicle.
EHIQ 10%vs mkt 20% - HITLegal & SCOTUSMay 18, 2026
Musk v Altman verdict
Jury unanimously rejected Musk's suit in full on statute-of-limitations grounds (2026-05-18), including the aiding-and-abetting claim against Microsoft (a named co-defendant). EHIQ posted 30% Musk-win on 2026-05-09 before the verdict, vs Kalshi ~40% — correct on the outcome, probabilistically; not a forecast of the SOL mechanism.
EHIQ 30%vs mkt 40% - HITStocks (earnings)May 8, 2026
PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation
Distribution coverage breakdown + ZERO Q&A confirmed. First Pebble thesis validated. Watch FSK/BIZD/OWL/ARES/GBDC for next confirmations.
EHIQ 75% - HITStocks (earnings)May 7, 2026
OPEN Q1 FY26 — Reffkin pattern Type A
Reffkin-pattern Type A delivered in full. Confirmed pre-print thesis.
EHIQ 70% - HITStocks (earnings)May 6, 2026
NXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus
NXDR Q1 came in at +14% revenue exact, matching EHIQ call. Q2 guide was the bigger re-rating event.
EHIQ 75% - CALStocks (earnings)May 5, 2026
DAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration
Direction 8/8 right. Magnitude 5-10% too aggressive on revenue. Calibration: apply sandbagging haircut + 0.7-0.8x conversion factor on alt-data going forward.
EHIQ 75% - HITElectionsApr 19, 2026
Bulgaria — Radev presidential call
Radev won the Bulgarian presidential vote. EHIQ called it before Polymarket priced it.
EHIQ 85%vs mkt 95%
What this number is not
- Not the same as the signal scoreboard — that tracks individual sensor fires (confirmed when the underlying ticker moves in the direction the sensor flagged); this tracks full named probability calls.
- Not survivorship-curated. Misses stay on the list permanently. Calibration notes are separate but listed.
- Not back-tested. Historical validation runs (Brexit, Biden, Carney, etc.) are kept on the predictions page separately and never enter the headline.
- Not a guarantee. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Disclaimer
Published intelligence and analytical research. Not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading event contracts and securities involves risk of loss. Readers are responsible for their own decisions.