Event Horizon IQ · Public track record

EHIQ Accuracy

Every probability call EHIQ publishes is logged before resolution and graded against the prevailing market (Kalshi, Polymarket, or the closest comparable). Hits, misses, and calibration notes all live here. No edits. No deletions. The math below is the whole math.

62%

Clean hit rate

26/42 resolved

13.6pp

Avg edge vs market

absolute, at call time

Calibration notes

right outcome, imperfect rationale

Misses

wrong direction

The math

Clean hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses + calibration notes). We count a call as a hit only when both the outcome AND the EHIQ rationale resolve correctly. A right outcome reached via wrong reasoning becomes a calibration note — counted separately, never silently folded into the headline.

Edge at call time = absolute difference (in percentage points) between EHIQ's published probability and the prevailing market probability at the moment EHIQ posted. Averaged across all resolved real-time calls.

What's excluded: 4 historical validation runs (Brexit, Biden 2020, Carney 2025, etc.) are kept on the predictions page in a separate “Historical Validation” section. They never blend into the headline hit rate — only real-time, dated, pre-resolution calls are counted here.

Hit rate by category

Every resolved call · 42

See active calls →

What this number is not

Not the same as the signal scoreboard — that tracks individual sensor fires (confirmed when the underlying ticker moves in the direction the sensor flagged); this tracks full named probability calls.
Not survivorship-curated. Misses stay on the list permanently. Calibration notes are separate but listed.
Not back-tested. Historical validation runs (Brexit, Biden, Carney, etc.) are kept on the predictions page separately and never enter the headline.
Not a guarantee. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Disclaimer

Published intelligence and analytical research. Not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading event contracts and securities involves risk of loss. Readers are responsible for their own decisions.