macro/high confidence
Real Rate Regime Sensor
Monitors 5-Year TIPS real yield, breakeven inflation, and nominal rates from FRED. Real rates are what Wall Street watches to gauge rate regime shifts.
RISING
Live
Since Mar 9, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
260 readings|2 state changes|RISING: 100%ELEVATED: 0%
State Definitions
RISING
Real yield 0.5-1.5% -- tightening. Rate-sensitive assets repricing.
SEVERE
Real yield >= 2.5% -- very restrictive. Historically associated with credit events.
STABLE
Real yield < 0.5% -- accommodative. Risk assets supported.
ELEVATED
Real yield 1.5-2.5% -- restrictive. Significant headwind for risk assets.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.