macro/high confidence
Real Rate Regime Sensor
Monitors 5-Year TIPS real yield, breakeven inflation, and nominal rates from FRED. Real rates are what Wall Street watches to gauge rate regime shifts.
ELEVATED
Live
Since May 18, 20262 people watching3 total views
State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
993 readings|99 state changes|RISING: 85%ELEVATED: 15%
State Definitions
RISING
Real yield 0.5-1.5% -- tightening. Rate-sensitive assets repricing.
SEVERE
Real yield >= 2.5% -- very restrictive. Historically associated with credit events.
STABLE
Real yield < 0.5% -- accommodative. Risk assets supported.
ELEVATED
Real yield 1.5-2.5% -- restrictive. Significant headwind for risk assets.
Sources
Fires Together With
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
289d overlapSTABLE
VIX Regime Sensor
159d overlapSTABLE
Treasury General Account Liquidity
95d overlapSEVERE
Credit Spread Monitor
85d overlapSTABLE
Housing Market Sensor
53d overlapDECLINING
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
51d overlapRISING
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.