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ElectionActive
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
8%
(6-11%)
Edge
-5.8pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 8% on May 9, 2026 when Polymarket was at 15%.
Market has since moved down to 14% · -1.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Rubio at 15.15% — surprising 3rd-highest behind Vance + Newsom. EHIQ at 8% (math: ~12-15% nominated × ~55% wins general = 6-8%). Polymarket may be overweighting the establishment-pivot scenario OR Rubio's general-election electability. SHORT mispricing candidate. BUT: EHIQ register read supports Rubio more than initial framework — lowest qualifier rate and lowest stress markers of any Republican scored. Most stable, decisive register in the field.
- 1.Rubio register score (multi-source: 2024 RNC + 2016 announcement, Munich diplomatic excluded). Lowest hedging + lowest LAS of any R — most grounded register.
- 2.Polymarket 15.15% is high. Math sanity check: implied nomination probability ≈ 27% (15.15 / 55% gen). EHIQ models nomination at 12-15% — hard to get to 27%.
- 3.Establishment pivot scenario: if Trump or post-Trump R party wants competence + diplomatic gravitas, Rubio is the alternative. SecState role gives him cover Vance lacks.
- 4.EHIQ position: SHORT Polymarket Rubio at 15.15% — implied probability requires either (a) much higher nomination probability than EHIQ models, or (b) higher general-election electability than likely.
Opened
May 9, 2026
Expected resolution
November 7, 2028