crypto/MEDIUM confidence

Reddit Sentiment

r/Bitcoin, r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader VADER sentiment. CONTRARIAN indicator: retail extremes invert.

RISING

22d stale

Since Sep 12, 2026

2 people watching

State History

No history data available yet.

Track record

STABLE

15 fires since 2021 · 0% hit · median 21d -15.4% on BTC-USD

contrarian

Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.

State Definitions

LOW

Very bullish retail (compound > 0.3). Complacent. Contrarian caution.

RISING

Turning negative (compound -0.1 to 0.05). Attention warranted.

SEVERE

Panic (compound below -0.3). Contrarian buy signal — each prior fire (Jun 2022 / Nov 2022 / Mar 2023 / Aug 2024) preceded tradable local bottoms.

STABLE

Mildly bullish (compound 0.05-0.3). Normal baseline.

ELEVATED

Significantly bearish (compound -0.3 to -0.1). Contrarian opportunity forming.

Sources

Reddit public API

People Also Watch

Executive Conviction: MSTR

2 also watchENERGIZED

Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.