macro/MEDIUM confidence
Polymarket IQ
Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.
ELEVATED
Live
Since May 14, 2026State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
875 readings|1 state change|ELEVATED: 95%RISING: 5%
State Definitions
RISING
Polymarket diverging from consensus on one or more catalysts. Crowd seeing risk consensus is missing.
SEVERE
Extreme divergence. Polymarket pricing tail outcomes consensus has dismissed.
STABLE
Polymarket odds aligned with consensus and sell-side base case.
ELEVATED
Significant Polymarket-consensus gap on multiple catalysts. Belief dislocation forming.
Sources
Fires Together With
IV-RV Spread (Variance Risk Premium)
6d overlapELEVATED
Wealth Tier Divergence
6d overlapEUPHORIA
Growth Valuation
6d overlapSEVERE
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
6d overlapRISING
Cross-Venue Depeg Detector
6d overlapSEVERE
Mobility Demand Composite
6d overlapEUPHORIA
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.