Polymarket IQ
Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Polymarket diverging from consensus on one or more catalysts. Crowd seeing risk consensus is missing.
Extreme divergence. Polymarket pricing tail outcomes consensus has dismissed.
Polymarket odds aligned with consensus and sell-side base case.
Significant Polymarket-consensus gap on multiple catalysts. Belief dislocation forming.
Sources
Fires Together With
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.