macro/MEDIUM confidence
Polymarket IQ
Aggregated belief from Polymarket prediction markets on macro, geopolitical, and regulatory events. Tracks crowd-belief divergence from consensus.
ELEVATED
Live
Since Jun 18, 20263 people watching5 total views
State History
RISING
SEVERE
STABLE
ELEVATED
1000 readings|0 state changes|ELEVATED: 100%
State Definitions
RISING
Polymarket diverging from consensus on one or more catalysts. Crowd seeing risk consensus is missing.
SEVERE
Extreme divergence. Polymarket pricing tail outcomes consensus has dismissed.
STABLE
Polymarket odds aligned with consensus and sell-side base case.
ELEVATED
Significant Polymarket-consensus gap on multiple catalysts. Belief dislocation forming.
Sources
Fires Together With
Growth Valuation
51d overlapSEVERE
Treasury General Account Liquidity
51d overlapSEVERE
Promotional Yield Anomaly
50d overlapSEVERE
Cross-Venue Depeg Detector
50d overlapSTABLE
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
50d overlapELEVATED
Real Rate Regime Sensor
50d overlapELEVATED
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.