macro/MEDIUM confidence
Regulatory Velocity Gauge
SEC/CFTC document velocity via Federal Register. Regulatory acceleration = policy surprise.
STABLE
Live
Since Sep 22, 20261 person watching
State History
162 readings|0 state changes|STABLE: 100%
Track record
RISING
11 fires since 2021 · 27% hit · median 21d +3.6% on BTC-USD
contrarian
STABLE
11 fires since 2021 · 55% hit · median 21d +0.9% on BTC-USD
no-content
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Polymarket IQ
5d overlapELEVATED
Growth Valuation
5d overlapSEVERE
Eth Gas Fee Regime
5d overlapRISING
Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor
5d overlapRISING
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
5d overlapRISING
Promotional Yield Anomaly
5d overlapSEVERE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.