macro/HIGH confidence
Treasury Yield Inversion
2Y-10Y Treasury spread monitor. Tracks the canonical recession-signal yield curve relationship. Distinct from yield-curve (slope dynamic) — measures inversion magnitude specifically.
RISING
Live
Since May 13, 2026State History
NORMAL
RISING
SEVERE
INVERTED
124 readings|0 state changes|RISING: 100%
State Definitions
NORMAL
Positive spread (2Y < 10Y). Typical late-cycle. No recession signal.
RISING
Spread compressing — under 50bps but still positive. Late-cycle warning.
SEVERE
Deep inversion (under -50bps). Highest-conviction macro short signal.
INVERTED
Negative spread (2Y > 10Y). High-probability recession signal.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.