Treasury Yield Inversion
2Y-10Y Treasury spread monitor. Tracks the canonical recession-signal yield curve relationship. Distinct from yield-curve (slope dynamic) — measures inversion magnitude specifically.
State History
Track record
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
State Definitions
Positive spread (2Y < 10Y). Typical late-cycle. No recession signal.
Spread compressing — under 50bps but still positive. Late-cycle warning.
Deep inversion (under -50bps). Highest-conviction macro short signal.
Negative spread (2Y > 10Y). High-probability recession signal.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.