macro/0.5 confidence
Credit Spread Monitor
Monitors high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads for stress signals.
STABLE
38d stale
6 people watching13 total views
State History
No history data available yet.
Track record
RISING
4 fires since 2021 · 25% hit · median 21d +9.1% on SPY
unmeasurable
STABLE
5 fires since 2021 · 60% hit · median 21d +0.8% on SPY
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
VIX Regime Sensor
554d overlapSTABLE
BTC Dominance Sensor
273d overlapRISING
Housing Market Sensor
194d overlapNORMAL
Real Rate Regime Sensor
85d overlapSEVERE
CMC Fear & Greed Index
34d overlapRISING
Employment Health Sensor
7d overlapSTABLE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
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Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.