crypto/MEDIUM confidence
Eth Liquid Staking Ratio
ELEVATED
Live
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State History
168 readings|23 state changes|ELEVATED: 58%STRESSED: 39%RISING: 4%
Track record
CALM
11 fires since 2021 · 27% hit · median 21d -15.0% on BTC-USD
contrarian
RISING
11 fires since 2021 · 27% hit · median 21d +21.6% on BTC-USD
contrarian
STRESSED
15 fires since 2021 · 27% hit · median 21d +3.6% on BTC-USD
contrarian
ELEVATED
12 fires since 2021 · 50% hit · median 21d +3.7% on BTC-USD
no-content
NEUTRAL
7 fires since 2021 · 71% hit · median 21d +3.3% on BTC-USD
unmeasurable
Measured from state-change events vs forward returns on the acting asset. Verdicts: validated (≥60% hit, n≥8) · contrarian (≤40% — the state's name lies) · no-content (a coin flip) · unmeasurable (n<8, reported never guessed). A state with no row has no track record.
Fires Together With
Promotional Yield Anomaly
87d overlapSEVERE
Polymarket IQ
87d overlapELEVATED
Geopolitical Risk Sensor
85d overlapRISING
Eth Gas Fee Regime
72d overlapRISING
Growth Valuation
64d overlapSEVERE
Real Rate Regime Sensor
64d overlapSEVERE
Sensors that were historically elevated on the same days. Higher overlap suggests correlated stress signals.
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.