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ElectionResolved★ featured
Katie Porter — CA Governor primary first-place
Will Katie Porter finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
11%
(8-14%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLVED 2026-05-22: reframed from "win the election" to primary first-place finish. SEM v1.2 ensemble 13.35% (race_id ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary; specificity 0.0/1k, n=11, −1.37pp TIQ adjustment, reliability 1.0). EHIQ 11% reflects 50% damping from prior 8% baseline: 8 + 0.5*(13.35-8) ≈ 10.7%. Klein/Terner "substantive performer" + CNN "disqualifying" coalition-register thesis preserved. Note: marketProb 0.014 reflects legacy "win the office" semantics; actual Polymarket first-place sub-market prices Porter at 0.01 per SEM file market_crosscheck (similar tail probability, so legacy field still directionally accurate).
- 1.PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2 — QUESTION-SEMANTIC RESOLUTION): EHIQ 8% → 11% after SEM v1.2 build + question-semantic reframe. SEM v1.2 ensemble (ca-governor-2026-firstplace-primary): SEM 14.72%, ensemble 13.35% (TIQ adjustment −1.37pp; specificity Porter 0.0/1k, n=11, reliability 1.0). Conservative 50% damping from prior: 8 + 0.5 × (13.35 − 8) ≈ 11%. §4 OOS Phase C FAIL — zero-specificity TIQ flag not load-bearing per discipline. Klein/Terner + CNN debate analytical input preserved as research caveat.
Resolution
Outcome
NO
Resolved
June 28, 2026
CA SoS returns, June 2 2026.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 2, 2026